744
ACUS01 KWNS 031241
SWODY1
SPC AC 031239

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0739 AM CDT Fri Oct 03 2025

Valid 031300Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of isolated severe gusts and hail will be
possible from late this afternoon into tonight from parts of the
Intermountain West into the central and northern Rockies.

...Intermountain West into the Central/Northern Rockies...
A well-defined, slightly positively tilted shortwave trough is
currently progressing through northern/central CA. Eastward
progression is expected to continue throughout the day, with the
shortwave forecast reach western UT by early Saturday morning with a
more neutral tilt. Strong mid-level flow will extend throughout the
base of this shortwave, spreading from central/southern CA into the
central Intermountain West as the wave moves eastward. Strong
large-scale forcing for ascent will precede this wave as well,
contributing to isolated to scattered thunderstorms throughout much
of the Great Basin into the western Slopes. Strong daytime heating
and steep low to mid-level lapse rates will support buoyancy
throughout much of this region, although the relatively scant
low-level moisture will keep the overall buoyancy modest. Even with
the modest buoyancy, high-based storms combined with moderate
low/mid-level flow could still result in a few strong surface gusts.
Greatest chance for a few gust will be later this afternoon/early
evening from northern into east-central UT. Persistent forcing for
ascent will result in thunderstorm development throughout the
evening and overnight amid strengthening mid-level flow and cooling
mid-level temperatures. Buoyancy will remain modest, but a few
instances of hail are possible this evening and tonight,
particularly across northern/eastern UT and vicinity.

...Elsewhere...
A broad and weak upper low will remain centered over the central
Gulf Coast, with lift associated with this system contributing to
thunderstorms within the moist airmass in place along the Gulf Coast
and FL. Southern extent of a cold front moving across Ontario will
glance Upper MI and northern Lower MI, contributing to isolated
storms. A few afternoon thunderstorms are also possible across Mid
MS Valley amid strong heating, moderate low-level moisture, and
modest low-level convergence. In each of these areas, limited shear
should keep the severe potential low.

An extensive low-level jet is anticipated from the southern High
Plains into the Upper MS Valley tonight. A few elevated
thunderstorms are possible across eastern ND and northwestern MN
tonight, but warm mid-level temperatures should mitigate the overall
severe potential.

..Mosier/Bentley.. 10/03/2025

$$