Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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875 ACUS01 KWNS 231254 SWODY1 SPC AC 231253 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0653 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025 Valid 231300Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF WEST TX.... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms capable of large hail will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of west Texas. ...West TX... A large upper low currently over AZ will track northeastward into NM, with a 70+ knot mid-level speed max approaching west TX by this afternoon. Ahead of this feature, southerly low-level winds will help transport 50s dewpoints into much of west TX ahead of a diffuse dryline. Most CAM solutions suggest that scattered thunderstorms will form along this dryline and track northeastward for a few hours. Given the strength of deep-layer shear, supercell structures will be likely with a risk of a large hail and perhaps a tornado. Storms should weaken by late evening as they move into a progressively less unstable air mass and diurnal cooling ensues. ..Hart/Broyles.. 11/23/2025 $$