237
FNUS22 KWNS 151943
FWDDY2

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0143 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are likely
tomorrow (Sunday) afternoon across portions of the central/southern
mid-Atlantic. Several hours of breezy post-frontal northwesterly
sustained surface winds near 15 mph are forecast to overlap minimum
RH values near 25% and critically receptive fuels (owing to
ongoing/persistent moderate-to-severe drought conditions). The
Elevated fire weather area was expanded in most directions with this
forecast update based on the latest high-resolution ensemble
guidance suggesting greater coverage of dry/breezy conditions. A
Critical fire weather area may be needed with future outlooks if
sustained wind speeds trend stronger in ensemble guidance.

Locally Elevated fire weather conditions are also possible across
portions of the Ohio Valley (centered on Indiana and vicinity),
where dry/breezy post-frontal conditions are expected to overlap
receptive fuels. While an Elevated area was considered, the forecast
minimum RH values and sustained wind speeds currently do not meet
Elevated criteria.

Please see the discussion below for more information on tomorrow`s
fire weather forecast.

..Elliott.. 11/15/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025/

...Synopsis...
Elevated fire weather conditions are probable Sunday afternoon
across portions of central Virginia in the lee of the Blue Ridge
Mountains. The cold front currently pushing across the Great Plains
is expected to reach the Mid-Atlantic by early Sunday, pushing well
offshore by early afternoon. This will establish a northwesterly
offshore flow regime across the region with downslope winds off the
Blue Ridge Mountains likely reaching to around 15 mph based on
recent ensemble/deterministic consensus. These solutions also
suggest that very little rainfall is likely with the frontal
passage, which will help maintain ongoing drought conditions and
keep ERC values near the 90th percentile. With RH reductions to near
25% likely by peak heating, elevated to locally critical fire
weather conditions appear probable.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$