


Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
574 FNUS22 KWNS 171937 FWDDY2 Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0237 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...Western Texas and Texas Panhandle... A robust mid-level short wave and associated vorticity maxima will eject into the Southern Plains through Day 2/Saturday period. The favorable upper-level and shear environment along a frontal boundary should support elevated shower and thunderstorm development across portions of northwest TX early Saturday, quickly moving east into northern TX and OK through the day. Showers and thunderstorms should traverse over a residual dry, post-frontal boundary layer across the TX Panhandle. The elevated northeastward storm motions of up to 45 mph and dry sub-cloud layer will limit surface rainfall primarily across the Texas Panhandle and Cap Rock areas, with wetting rainfall potential increasing farther east. Very dry conditions resurface across much of western TX as the surface front advances eastward through the day and daytime boundary layer mixing results in west/northwest winds of 15-25 mph amid relative humidity values below 15%. Pockets of receptive fuels where morning rainfall is minimized combined with dry/breezy conditions are now most likely to be across portions of the TX Panhandle and Cap Rock areas Saturday afternoon, where an elevated fire weather risk largely remains. ..Williams.. 10/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... A surface low will deepen across the central/southern Plains on D2/Saturday as a front shifts south across the southern Plains. The dryline will be located across the Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma. Behind the dryline, relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent will overlap with warm and breezy conditions ahead of the southward moving cold front. Overall, ensemble guidance keeps spatial extent of any Critical conditions very limited. As such, an Elevated area was maintained with this outlook though some localized Critical conditions will be possible. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$