233
ACUS02 KWNS 170608
SWODY2
SPC AC 170606

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1206 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Middle Mississippi
and Lower Ohio Valleys on Tuesday, additional isolated thunderstorms
are expected across parts of the Southwest. Severe potential appears
limited at this time.

...Ohio Valley Vicinity...

An upper shortwave trough over the Mid/Lower MO Valley will develop
east across the Ohio Valley through Tuesday evening, before arriving
over the Mid-Atlantic coast by Wednesday morning. A belt of enhanced
westerly flow will overspread the region as this occurs. At the
surface, a weak low over the Ozark Plateau early in the day will
weaken, with little surface cyclogenesis tied to the upper trough.
Building high pressure over the Great Lakes will allow for a weak
cold front to develop south/southeast across the Mid-South/Lower
Ohio Valley through the period, and will limit northward progression
of any deeper boundary-layer moisture.

Most forecast guidance suggests convection will be ongoing Tuesday
morning. This activity will occur on the nose a southwesterly
low-level jet within a broad warm advection regime. This elevated
convection may produce small hail in stronger updrafts, but overall
severe potential is expected to remain limited as convection
develops east of the better instability/moist axis. During the late
afternoon or evening, additional storms may develop along the
surface boundary. Surface-based instability is expected to remain
minimal given convection earlier in the day, modest boundary layer
moisture, and increasing inhibition with loss of daytime heating.
Low to midlevel flow also will veer during the evening as the upper
trough passes to the north and east. Small hail could once again
accompany the strongest storms, but overall severe potential appears
low.

...Southwest...

Isolated thunderstorms are possible as an upper low moves southeast
across southern CA/northern Baja. Modest midlevel moisture within a
warm advection regime ahead of this system will support enough
instability for occasional thunderstorms across portions of the
Lower CO Valley/southern NV/much of AZ. Severe storms are not
expected.

..Leitman.. 11/17/2025

$$