822
ACUS02 KWNS 101647
SWODY2
SPC AC 101645

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1045 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.
Tuesday through Tuesday night.

...Discussion...
A seasonably cold, dry boundary-layer air mass has spread as far
south and east as much of the northwestern Gulf Basin and middle
through southern Atlantic Seaboard, with cyclogenesis underway near
the northern Mid Atlantic coast and forecast to proceed
north-northeastward across portions of New England into the lower
St. Lawrence Valley later today through tonight.  By 12Z Tuesday,
the occluding center of the cyclone is forecast to reach
southeastern Quebec, before drifting northward and weakening as
secondary cyclogenesis takes place across the Canadian Maritimes, in
response to a vigorous short wave impulse accelerating northeastward
near/offshore of the Atlantic Seaboard.

While models indicate that large-scale mid/upper troughing will lose
amplitude across the eastern U.S. in the wake of this feature, a
digging upstream perturbation is forecast to maintain broadly
cyclonic northwesterly mid/upper flow across the Great Lakes, and
upper Mississippi through Ohio Valleys, downstream of building
ridging inland of the Pacific coast through the Rockies and adjacent
Great Plains.  Beneath this regime, down slope flow and warm
advection across much of the Great Plains, and continuing advection
across and east of the Mississippi Valley, will likely contribute to
significant boundary-layer modification.  However, with only slow
weakening of lingering surface ridging across the Gulf Basin and
Florida Peninsula, little appreciable inland moisture return is
anticipated.  Generally stable conditions are likely to be
maintained across much of the U.S., with little risk for
thunderstorms.

...Lee of lower Great Lakes...
Beneath the cold, cyclonic flow across the lower Great Lakes region,
both the NAM and Rapid Refresh suggest that a plume of relatively
stronger boundary-layer destabilization and deeper convective
development is possible across and east-southeast of the eastern
shores of Lake Erie late tonight through Tuesday afternoon.  While
equilibrium levels appear rather low, it is not entirely clear from
forecast soundings that the development of charge separation is not
possible.  However, the potential for convection becoming more than
briefly capable of producing a lightning strike or two still appears
too low and/or isolated to introduce 10 percent or greater
thunderstorm probabilities.

..Kerr.. 11/10/2025

$$