242
ACUS02 KWNS 231725
SWODY2
SPC AC 231724

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1124 AM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
COASTAL CALIFORNIA AND THE CENTRAL VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with marginally severe wind gusts, small hail and
potentially a brief tornado will be possible from Wednesday into
Wednesday night along parts of the California coast, and inland
across the San Joaquin Valley.

...California Coast...
West of an imposing upper ridge building over the central US, deep
troughing will intensify Wednesday and Wednesday night over the
eastern Pacific. Several embedded disturbances will track onshore
over parts of the West Coast. Strong ascent and strengthening
onshore flow will aid in modest destabilization, first near the
southern CA coast/LA Basin and eventually farther north and inland.

A band of storms will likely be ongoing over southern CA and
adjacent waters early Wednesday morning. Strong flow aloft (1km AGL
wind 50+ kt) may mix to the surface supporting strong gusts and the
potential for a brief tornado. A second more potent shortwave and
surface low (sub 985 mb) will intensify and move near the
central/northern CA Coast into early Thursday. A broken, low-topped
band of storms along the advancing cold front may eventually move
onshore overnight with a risk for occasional strong gusts.

...San Joaquin Valley...
Across central CA, cold mid-level temperatures (-24 to -27 C),
strong height falls and the left exit of a 100+ kt mid-level jet
will overspread 50s F surface dewpoints across the northern and
central San Joaquin Valley Wednesday afternoon and evening. Model
soundings show modest MUCAPE (max around 500 J/kg) amid veering wind
profiles and enlarged hodographs. Despite the limited buoyancy, a
few semi-organized supercells are possible. Damaging gusts, hail and
a brief tornado are possible with the strongest storms before
convection gradually moves eastward into the higher terrain and
weakens.

..Lyons.. 12/23/2025

$$