252
ACUS02 KWNS 300652
SWODY2
SPC AC 300651

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms will develop along the Gulf Coast tomorrow
(Monday) into early Tuesday morning. Severe thunderstorms are not
currently expected.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will intensify while traversing the central CONUS
tomorrow (Monday), resulting in surface low development along the
Gulf Coast late in the period. As this occurs, a broad warm-air
advection regime will become established across the Southeast,
resulting in mainly elevated buoyancy (e.g. a few hundred J/kg
MUCAPE) ushering inland. A broad shield of rain with embedded
thunderstorms should become established across the Sabine River
Valley into MS by 00Z, progressing eastward toward the eastern Gulf
Coast by 12Z Tuesday morning. Most guidance indicates the warm front
and associated surface-based buoyancy remaining just offshore, along
with the anticipated surface low. However, some guidance (e.g. the
00Z NAM) hints at some surface based buoyancy reaching the shoreline
in the 00-12Z period. Should this occur, a sparse severe threat
cannot be ruled out. However, given that the guidance consensus
strays from this scenario, severe probabilities have not been
introduced at this time.

..Squitieri.. 11/30/2025

$$