158
ACUS02 KWNS 070502
SWODY2
SPC AC 070500

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1100 PM CST Sat Dec 06 2025

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Aside from the possibility of a couple weak thunderstorms near and,
perhaps, inland of southern Florida coastal areas, the risk for
thunderstorms will remain negligible across much of the U.S. Monday
through Monday night.

...Synopsis...
The center of a fairly prominent, but relatively compact mid-level
vortex is likely to continue redeveloping east-southeast of southern
Hudson/James Bay, into and across the Newfoundland and Labrador
vicinity during this period.  However, models indicate that
large-scale mid-level troughing will be maintained east of the
Rockies through the western Atlantic, downstream of persistent broad
ridging across the eastern mid-latitude Pacific into U.S
Intermountain West.

One notable short wave perturbation embedded within the troughing is
forecast to accelerate east-northeast of the southern Appalachians,
across and offshore of the southern Mid Atlantic, but this may
contribute to suppression of subtropical ridging as far south as the
Caribbean and Bahamas.  In lower levels, an associated reinforcing
intrusion of cooler/drier air appears likely to contribute to the
southward advancement of the primary cold front through much of the
remainder of the Florida Peninsula and Gulf Basin.

At the same time, it appears that another notable short wave
perturbation, progressing through the crest of upstream ridge, will
provide support for surface cyclogenesis to the lee of the Canadian
and northern U.S. Rockies by late Monday night.  This likely will be
accompanied by downslope aided warming across much of the high
plains, but dry, stable conditions will be maintained there and
across much of the remainder of the U.S.

...Southern Florida/Keys...
Latest model output remains varied concerning potential for
thunderstorm development along/ahead of the southward advancing
front.  Mid/upper support appears weak, with potential for
appreciable destabilization, particularly inland of coastal areas,
limited as well.

..Kerr.. 12/07/2025

$$