293
ACUS02 KWNS 181740
SWODY2
SPC AC 181739

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1239 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MIDWEST...THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN
AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Locally strong gusts and marginal hail may occur with storms over
the southern High Plains, with a couple of strong gusts also
possible from parts of the Iowa vicinity into southern
Wisconsin/northern Illinois. A brief tornado or two may occur over
parts of southern/southeastern Texas Wednesday and Wednesday night
in association with Potential Tropical Cyclone 1.

...Northern Missouri/southeastern Iowa into southern Wisconsin and
northern Illinois...
Lingering convection from the Day 1 period should be ongoing across
the central Plains area Wednesday morning, with some convective
reinforcement of the cold front lying from the Upper Great Lakes
southwestward to New Mexico at the start of the period.

As the airmass destabilizes through peak heating, storm
redevelopment is expected.  At this time, the greatest risk for
locally damaging wind gusts associated with stronger storms appears
to exist from southeastern Iowa/northern Missouri northeastward,
ahead of a potential, loosely organized band of convection which may
redevelop near the front, and shift east-northeastward along the
boundary.  The risk may persist through late afternoon, before an
evening decrease in convective intensity.

...The southern High Plains vicinity...
As a cold front shifts southward across the Plains, afternoon storm
reinvigoration/development is expected across the southern High
Plains region.  A destabilizing airmass near and south of the front,
combined with the southern fringe of stronger mid-level
southwesterlies lying atop this area, may result in an environment
sufficient to support organized convection, and associated risk for
strong gusts locally, along with marginal hail.  Risk will peak
through the afternoon and early evening.

...Southern and southeastern Texas...
Potential Tropical Cyclone #1 is forecast to move westward across
northern Mexico Wednesday, with convection surrounding the system
expected to spread west across a large portion of Texas.  While weak
lapse rates aloft will substantially limit instability, roughly
unidirectional easterly flow through the lower troposphere,
increasing with height through the low levels, may provide enough
shear for occasionally rotating, low-topped convective cells.  Along
with gusty winds, a brief tornado or two will be possible with a
couple of the stronger/sustained cells.

..Goss.. 06/18/2024

$$