733
ACUS02 KWNS 030544
SWODY2
SPC AC 030543

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1243 AM CDT Fri Oct 03 2025

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST
COLORADO INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms may impact a corridor across parts of the
central and northern Great Plains late Saturday afternoon into the
nighttime hours. Some risk for severe wind and hail will accompany
this activity.

...Central High Plains to Northwest MN...

A shortwave upper trough over the Great Basin will lift northeast to
the northern Plains on Saturday. A belt of moderate southwesterly
mid/upper flow will overspread the central Rockies to the Upper
Midwest as this occurs. At the surface, troughing is forecast across
the High Plains, with an elongated area of low pressure stretching
from SD into northern MN during much of the period. The surface low
will deepen over the northern Plains late in the period as the upper
shortwave trough ejects northeast. Modest boundary layer moisture
(mid 50s to low 60s F) will be in place to the east of the surface
trough across the central Plains, and ahead of a surface cold front
extending from the SD surface low into eastern ND/northern MN.

Capping will likely preclude diurnal convection across the warm
sector. However, cooling aloft/steepening midlevel lapse rates may
support thunderstorm development across the higher terrain of CO/WY
by mid/late afternoon. These storms may then become better organized
as they move into NE/SD by evening as they interact with the surface
cold front within a modestly unstable airmass. Convection will
likely remain elevated/just to the cool side of the surface front
and maintain a linear mode given deep shear parallel to the surface
boundary. Isolated strong to severe storms may produce strong gusts
with this activity as convection develops east/northeast along the
surface boundary during the evening/overnight. If any elevated
convection can maintain a cellular mode, isolated hail also could
occur.

..Leitman.. 10/03/2025

$$