317
ACUS02 KWNS 011728
SWODY2
SPC AC 011726

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1126 AM CST Mon Dec 01 2025

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected Tuesday across the Southeast to
the Atlantic Coastline. A damaging gust or brief tornado are
possible mainly Tuesday morning along the Florida Panhandle.

...FL Gulf Coast...
A broad upper trough over the eastern US will intensify as it moves
eastward early Tuesday. As ascent from the upper trough overspreads
the Southeastern CONUS, an initially modest surface trough along a
stalled frontal zone will rapidly deepen and organize into a strong
coastal low, moving from the FL Gulf Coast to the Carolinas by early
Wednesday. The front will sharpen and surge south behind the low and
upper trough as high pressure and strong cold advection develop over
the eastern half of the US.

Early in the day, southerly low level-winds ahead of the front and
deepening low will allow for modest northward return of modified
Gulf moisture over parts of FL and far southern GA. Despite a
relatively cool boundary-layer limiting the northward advance of the
more moist air mass, weak destabilization is expected for the first
few hours of the period. Isolated strong to occasionally severe
thunderstorms may move onshore across the FL Panhandle/Big bend
region before spreading northeastward across the northern Peninsula.
Despite modest mid-level lapse rates, around 500 J/kg MLCAPE may
overlap with large low-level hodographs and strong deep-layer shear
favorable for transient supercells/line segments capable of isolated
damaging gusts or perhaps a brief tornado. The severe threat should
end by midday as surface winds veer and the front accelerates
offshore.

...Outer Banks...
As the upper trough and surface low intensify and shift eastward,
the front will gradually move toward the coast with an increasingly
narrow warm sector. Numerous thunderstorms are expected in the
near-shore waters early Tuesday into the evening hours. While most
model soundings show cool and stable conditions near the surface, a
brief window could exist for a storm to move onshore from late
Tuesday morning into the early afternoon. Neutral stability at the
surface amid very strong low-level warm advection could allow for a
brief tornado given supercell wind profiles. However, buoyancy will
be very weak and any risk will be constrained to the immediate
coast. Thus, while a brief tornado cannot be ruled out, the
short-lived severe risk appears very limited before the low and
trailing front move offshore in the afternoon.

..Lyons.. 12/01/2025

$$