033
ACUS02 KWNS 080502
SWODY2
SPC AC 080501

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1101 PM CST Sun Dec 07 2025

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S Tuesday
through Tuesday night.

...Discussion...
While a blocking high to the north of the Aleutians may undergo at
least some short-lived suppression, models indicate that a
downstream high may become a bit more prominent across the southern
mid- to subtropical latitudes of the eastern Pacific during this
period.  As this occurs, a belt of strong anticyclonic flow is
likely to be maintained across much of the eastern mid-latitude
Pacific through the northern U.S. intermountain region and Rockies.

One of a number of short wave perturbations progressing through this
jet is forecast to emerge and contribute to amplifying mid-level
troughing as it digs across the northern Great Plains through Upper
Midwest, accompanied by a rapidly migrating surface cyclone into the
upper Great Lakes by late Tuesday night.  It appears that this will
be trailed by a gradually consolidating and increasingly significant
surface cold intrusion.

A notable preceding surface front may remain a focus for
thunderstorm development near and south-southeast of the Florida
Straits Tuesday into Tuesday night.  The trailing flank of this
front is forecast to weaken across the southwestern Gulf Basin, and
some Gulf boundary-layer modification may commence to the north.
However, this is likely to remain rather modest, and an initial
low-level offshore flow across the Gulf Coast, veering to an
increasing westerly component by Tuesday night, will tend to inhibit
inland moistening.

..Kerr.. 12/08/2025

$$