320
ACUS02 KWNS 270655
SWODY2
SPC AC 270654

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms are possible over the southern Plains tomorrow
(Friday) night into early Saturday morning. Severe thunderstorms are
not currently expected.

...Synopsis...
Surface high pressure across much of the Interior West, as well as
the northern and eastern CONUS, will limit thunderstorm potential in
these regions due to static stability. However, the rapid approach
of a mid-level trough will encourage lee cyclogenesis over the
southern Plains tomorrow (Friday). As the surface low materializes
over western OK during the day, modest low-level moisture will
advect northward with the aid of a 40-50 kt southerly low-level jet.
7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates are expected to overspread the
aforementioned low-level warm-air advection, promoting
destabilization Friday night/early Saturday morning atop a stable
boundary layer. This elevated buoyancy, characterized by 500-1000
J/kg thin MUCAPE constrained above 700 mb, will support nocturnal
thunderstorm development over portions of the southern Plains, when
the primary upper support with the approaching mid-level trough
arrives. Given strong vertical wind shear (e.g. elongated
hodographs), a few of the stronger storms may produce hail. However,
given limited elevated MUCAPE, the confidence in the coverage of
more than sparse severe hail is too low for the introduction of
severe probabilities at this time.

..Squitieri.. 11/27/2025

$$