768
ACUS02 KWNS 221703
SWODY2
SPC AC 221701

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1101 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TX
TRANS-PECOS TO NORTH TX...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe hail is possible from Sunday late afternoon into
Sunday night across parts of west to north-central Texas.

...Synopsis...
A positive-tilt shortwave trough will progress from the Southwest
into the central/southern High Plains through early Monday. This
will induce a weak surface wave over eastern CO, displaced well
north of a front that is currently along the Upper TX Coast to south
TX. This boundary should remain quasi-stationary into Sunday
afternoon before gradually advancing north on Sunday night over
south-central TX.

...TX Trans-Pecos to north TX...
A confined plume of surface-based destabilization should develop
into the TX Trans-Pecos by late afternoon, with otherwise elevated
buoyancy across western to central TX. Severe potential should
commence towards late afternoon with initial cells that may be
sustained along the eastern periphery of the surface-based
instability corridor before becoming elevated downstream. Within a
persistent low-level warm theta-e advection regime, regenerative
elevated convection is expected through Monday morning. Mid-level
lapse rates appear modest, but adequate low-level moisture should be
present amid strong effective bulk shear to pose an isolated severe
hail risk. A few supercells might occur early, with a predominately
messy cluster mode by Sunday night. This setup could warrant a
mesoscale corridor of greater hail probabilities in the Permian
Basin vicinity, with lower confidence in the overnight extent of
severe potential towards central and north TX.

..Grams.. 11/22/2025

$$