Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
008 ACUS02 KWNS 160544 SWODY2 SPC AC 160542 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to remain limited on Wednesday. ...Central/Southern High Plains Vicinity... An upper trough will overspread the northern Plains to the southern High Plains. With time, an upper low is forecast to develop within the broader troughing regime over the northern High Plains vicinity. Deep-layer flow will generally be weak, limiting vertical shear. However, a surface front is forecast to be oriented from far southeast CO/northeast NM eastward along the KS/OK border. East/southeasterly low-level flow near the boundary could enhanced vertical shear locally, with effective shear values up to 25-30 kt possible by late afternoon/evening. Boundary layer moisture will be modest, in the 50s to low 60s F from the Raton Mesa vicinity into southwest KS and the OK/TX Panhandles. Nevertheless, steep midlevel lapse rates and cool temperatures aloft will support MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg. Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop by late afternoon in the upslope flow regime. The strongest storms could produce sub-severe hail and gusty winds across southeast CO/northeast NM, southwest KS and portions of the OK/TX Panhandles. ...Northern OK into MN/WI... A seasonally moist airmass will be in place to the east of a surface boundary extending from eastern SD into central/southwest KS by late afternoon. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms are possible, and may be ongoing across parts of the region Wednesday morning. This activity and associated cloud cover cast doubt on where stronger destabilization will occur through peak heating. Furthermore, vertical shear is expected to remain weak, and lapse rates will be poor, especially with northward extent. A strong storm or two will be possible where stronger destabilization occurs, but overall severe potential is expected to remain limited. ..Leitman.. 09/16/2025 $$