362
ACUS03 KWNS 270829
SWODY3
SPC AC 270828

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN TO THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of
southeast Texas into northern Louisiana Saturday afternoon or
evening.

...Synopsis...
A surface low will translate northeast from the southern Plains
toward the Great lakes as a broad mid-level trough overspreads the
central U.S. on Saturday. Relatively rich low-level moisture return
will occur across the Sabine River Valley ahead of a surface cold
front. Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development should occur
within a warm-air advection regime. Given strong vertical wind shear
in place due to a departing low-level jet, isolated strong to severe
storms are possible across the TX Coastal Plain toward the Sabine
River Valley ahead of the approaching cold front.

...Southeast Texas into northern Louisiana...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing across the
southern Plains into the Lower MS Valley within the warm-air
advection regime. Through the day, airmass modification will result
in some boundary layer destabilization as cloudiness and
precipitation gradually clears the warm sector over southeastern TX.
Over 1000 J/kg MLCAPE may materialize if surface temperatures can
exceed 70 F given expected mid to upper 60s F dewpoints beneath 7-8
C/km mid-level lapse rates. A surface cold front will sweep
southeastward toward eastern TX. However, the mid-level trough
should pivot northeastward through the day. As such, the surface low
and accompanying low-level jet are poised to depart the southern
Plains and track away from the axis of greater moisture and
instability, which should limit severe potential to some degree.

Still, low-level convergence along the cold front should support
thunderstorm development by afternoon peak heating across the TX
coastal plain to the Sabine River Valley. Strong enough flow along
the western periphery of the departing low-level jet, beneath modest
westerlies, will support elongated hodographs and over 30 kts of
effective bulk shear. Given the aforementioned buoyancy, multicells
and perhaps a couple of supercells are possible. Isolated severe
gusts/hail are possible, and a tornado cannot be ruled out.

..Squitieri.. 11/27/2025

$$