557
ACUS03 KWNS 100730
SWODY3
SPC AC 100729

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE
MID MISSOURI VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with large hail and severe wind gusts are
expected on Wednesday from parts of the mid Missouri Valley
northeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley.

...Mid Missouri and upper Mississippi Valleys...
West-northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place across the
north-central U.S. on Wednesday, as a mid-level jet moves eastward
across the far northern states. At the surface, A cold front will
advance southeastward through the northern Plains. Ahead of the
front, a moist airmass will be in place from the mid Missouri Valley
northeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley. Warming surface
temperatures and destabilization will likely result in isolated to
scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon.
Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase across the region
during the late afternoon and early evening, as low-level flow
increases. The exit region of the approaching mid-level jet will
also increase large-scale ascent and deep-layer shear, making
conditions favorable for organized storms.

By late afternoon, the strongest instability is forecast to be from
eastern South Dakota into central Minnesota, where MLCAPE is
forecast to peak in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range. NAM forecast
soundings along this corridor at 00Z/Thursday have 0-6 km shear in
the 40 to 50 knot range, with steep low to mid-level lapse rates.
Some soundings suggest that 700-500 mb lapse rates could approach 8
C/km. This environment will be favorable for supercells with large
hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible
with the strongest of cells. A wind-damage threat will also become
likely as the storms gradually grow upscale. Some models suggest
that a severe threat could continue into the overnight period, as a
cluster remains intact and moves eastward into the western Great
Lakes.

..Broyles.. 06/10/2024

$$