Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
263 ACUS03 KWNS 221913 SWODY3 SPC AC 221912 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN EAST TX TO FAR SOUTHERN AR... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from later Monday afternoon into Monday night across east Texas towards the Ark-La-Miss. A few tornadoes along with large hail and damaging winds are anticipated. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough over the central to southern High Plains will move east, dampening Monday night in response to an upstream wave digging from the Pacific Northwest to the northern Great Plains. While the leading surface low will remain weak, pronounced upper-level diffluence and persistent low-level warm theta-e advection will support extensive convection across the South-Central States through the period. ...Central TX to the Ark-La-Miss... A swath of elevated convection should be ongoing at 12Z Monday from central TX northeastward, likely north of a gradually advancing surface warm front. This boundary should accelerate north-northeast with diurnal heating, yielding expansion of surface-based instability across much of east TX by afternoon. While low-probability severe hail is possible early, primary severe potential should await peak heating along/ahead of the trailing early-day convective swath. Elongated hodographs, amid 500-mb southwesterlies in excess of 50 kts, will favor regenerative supercells. These should be semi-discrete with southwest extent and embedded within an increasingly messy cluster mode northeastward. Large hail and some tornado threat should tend to be favored across east TX during the late afternoon and evening, before low-level winds subside and become more veered Monday night from west to east. Nocturnal tornado and some damaging wind potential may persist across the Sabine Valley towards the Ark-La-Miss, where enlarged low-level hodographs coincide with the northeast flank of the surface-based instability plume. ..Grams.. 11/22/2025 $$