617
ACUS03 KWNS 190803
SWODY3
SPC AC 190801

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0201 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected from the Texas coast into the
Tennessee Valley and central/southern Appalachians on Friday. Severe
thunderstorm potential appears limited.

...Texas Coast to the Mid-South/TN Valley vicinity...

A shortwave upper trough will develop east from the southern Plains
to the central Appalachians vicinity on Friday. A belt of enhanced
westerly flow associated with this feature will overspread the
Mid-South and TN Valley vicinity. At the surface, a cold front will
develop southeast across east TX and the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valleys.
Forecast guidance varies with the progression of the front, but the
expectation is for the boundary to extend from the central
Appalachians west/southwest to the TX coast by Saturday morning.

Convection will likely be ongoing Friday morning across east TX
along the cold front, and across portions of the Mid-South vicinity
within a warm advection regime. While boundary layer moisture will
be greater than normal for this time of year, boundary-parallel flow
will likely result in training convection, limiting stronger
destabilization. Furthermore, widespread cloudiness, poor lapse
rates and areas of precipitation downstream from the surface
boundary will further limit destabilization. While a couple of
strong storms cannot be entirely ruled out across parts of the
Mid-South and TN Valley, overall severe potential appears limited. A
strong storm or two also could occur across southeast TX near the
cold front, but weak large-scale ascent, modest vertical shear, and
warm midlevel temperatures should temper severe potential.

..Leitman.. 11/19/2025

$$