235
ACUS03 KWNS 150708
SWODY3
SPC AC 150707

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0107 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms may occur Monday evening into early Tuesday
morning across parts of the Ozarks and Middle Mississippi Valley.
Severe thunderstorm potential appears low.

...Ozarks/Mid-MS Valley vicinity...

An upper shortwave trough over the central Rockies vicinity will
develop east into the northern Plains on Monday/Monday night. This
system will suppress upper ridging over the southern Plains into the
Mid/Lower MS Valley vicinity, though moderate westerly flow will
overspread OK/KS into the Mid-South. Given a more northerly trend in
the track of the upper shortwave trough, large-scale ascent will
remain displaced from modest Gulf moisture return across OK/TX
toward the Ozark Plateau.

At the surface, a weak low will progress across OK/KS toward the
Ozarks. Warm temperatures in the 850-700 mb layer will preclude
surface-based instability. However, cool temperatures aloft will
support weak MUCAPE and isolated elevated convection is possible in
the vicinity of the Ozarks to the Mid-MS Valley, mainly after 00z.
Some forecast soundings suggest small hail could accompany any
stronger cells that develop, but concerns over storm coverage and
intensity preclude severe probabilities at this time.

..Leitman.. 11/15/2025

$$