Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
467 ACUS03 KWNS 121829 SWODY3 SPC AC 121828 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are possible in parts of the northern and central Plains and the southern High Plains on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted mid-level trough will begin the period across the central High Plains and move northeast. There are still timing differences with the northeastward translation of this trough with the GFS near the Canadian border by 12Z Monday with the ECMWF depicting this trough across eastern South Dakota at the same time. A broad surface low will be present across the Dakotas with an extension of this trough extending southward to the southern High Plains. ...Central/Northern Plains... Expansive cloudcover will likely be present across much of the warm sector on Sunday ahead of the mid-level trough. This will keep instability mostly weak across much of the central/northern Plains. Moderate to strong effective shear will promote storm organization with any of the stronger updrafts which can develop. At this time, relatively weak instability within the area of greatest ascent casts questions on the coverage of strong to severe storms Sunday afternoon/evening. Therefore, some isolated storms capable of large hail and wind gusts are possible, but a more organized threat remains unclear. ...Southern High Plains... Stronger instability is possible across the Texas Caprock where low 60s dewpoints will be present amid moderately strong heating. Relatively warm mid-level temperatures (around -6C) could be a limiting factor to storm development. However, some ascent within the right entrance region of the upper-level jet may support storm development. This is supported by scattered storm coverage from CAM guidance which extends into Day 3/Sunday. Therefore, a Marginal risk has been added to address this severe weather potential. ..Bentley.. 09/12/2025 $$