859
ACUS03 KWNS 140727
SWODY3
SPC AC 140726

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with marginally severe hail will be
possible on Thursday in the late afternoon across parts of the
central High Plains.

...Central High Plains...
A mid-level low is forecast to move northeastward into the northern
High Plains on Thursday, as an associated trough passes through the
Intermountain West. Southwest flow will remain over much of the
Great Plains, as a ridge moves eastward away from the region. At the
surface, a cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the
central High Plains. Strong low-level convergence is forecast to
develop along the front during the late afternoon, being conducive
for thunderstorm development. Forecast soundings near the
instability axis in the late afternoon have MUCAPE of 500 to 1000
J/kg with low to mid-level lapse rates in the 7.5 to 8.5 C/km range.
In addition, effective shear is forecast to be in the 50 to 60 knot
range. This should support marginally severe hail with rotating
cells that develop. Model forecasts suggest that most of the
convection will be behind the boundary, which will be limiting
factor. The hail threat is expected to peak in a relatively narrow
window in the late afternoon.

..Broyles.. 10/14/2025

$$