241
ACUS03 KWNS 191913
SWODY3
SPC AC 191912

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0112 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected from the Texas coast into the
Tennessee Valley and central/southern Appalachians on Friday. Severe
thunderstorms are not expected.

...Synopsis...
A low-amplitude mid-level trough will overspread the TN Valley as an
upper-low becomes established over CA on Day 3/Friday. Cooler
temperatures aloft associated with the CA low will support a few
lightning flashes, mainly offshore. Across the TN Valley, the
passage of the low-amplitude mid-level trough will encourage the
eastward translation of a weak surface low along the OH River toward
the Appalachians through the Friday period. A broad fetch of
low-level moisture will advect northward toward the OH River has a
cold front slowly approaches from the Ozarks (draped southwestward
into eastern TX). The warm sector south of the warm front along the
OH River, and ahead of the cold front east of the Ozarks, should be
adequately buoyant to support isolated to scattered thunderstorm
development through the day Friday into Friday evening.

Nonetheless, the aforementioned mid-level trough should further
de-amplify through Friday, with forcing for ascent expected to
weaken as low-level flow heavily veers with time. Furthermore, the
mainly unidirectional vertical wind shear will become increasingly
displaced from the richer low-level moisture and associated
buoyancy, limiting severe potential across the OH Valley and points
south/west.

..Squitieri.. 11/19/2025

$$