525
ACUS03 KWNS 140651
SWODY3
SPC AC 140650

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0150 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday
across portions of the central Plains.

...Central Plains...

A positive-tilt upper shortwave trough is forecast to develop
eastward from MT/WY into the northern/central Plains on Tuesday.
Deep-layer flow is expected to remain modest, though 30-40 kt of
southwesterly flow is forecast at 500 mb ahead of the trough across
the NE vicinity. At the surface, a weak cold front is expected to
develop southeast across the Upper Midwest and central Plains. A
seasonally moist airmass, with dewpoints from the upper 50s to mid
60s F will be in place ahead of the front, supporting moderate
instability from NE/KS into MN/WI.

Stronger forcing for ascent may not occur until after peak heating
as the trough ejects slowly east. Additionally, forecast soundings
indicate weak capping may persist near the surface boundary. If
storms do develop prior to 00z, deep-layer flow parallel to the
surface boundary may result in storms becoming undercut by the
front. Nevertheless, where favorable/sufficient effective shear
magnitudes overlap with stronger instability/steep midlevel lapse
rates, a few stronger storms could develop. This may be most likely
across parts of NE and vicinity where the cold front intersects a
weak low/surface trough, increasing low-level convergence along the
boundary. Even if storms are somewhat elevated, isolated hail and
gusty winds would be possible. While timing and coverage remain
uncertain, the overall parameter space suggests a couple of
marginally severe storms will be possible.

..Leitman.. 09/14/2025

$$