007
ACUS03 KWNS 260721
SWODY3
SPC AC 260720

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0120 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms are possible over the southern Plains Friday
night into early Saturday morning. Severe thunderstorms are not
currently expected.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will amplify across the central U.S. as another
upper trough ejects into the Atlantic on Day 3 (Friday). As this
occurs, surface high pressure and an associated cool, statically
stable airmass will overspread the U.S. east of the MS River,
limiting thunderstorm potential. However, the approach of the
central U.S. trough will encourage surface low development over the
southern Plains on Friday, promoting moisture return from the Gulf.
With the return of this moisture comes buoyancy (albeit marginal)
across portions of the southern Plains. Thunderstorms will be
possible Friday night into early Saturday morning across much of
central TX into far southwestern OK as cooler temperatures
aloft/steep mid-level lapse rates overspreads the moist axis ahead
of the surface low.

...Central TX into far southwestern OK...
The latest guidance consensus depicts a 1008 mb surface low
developing somewhere over western OK by Friday evening as a
mid-level trough deepens over the central Rockies. Given a frontal
intrusion over the Gulf in days prior, moisture return will be scant
for Day 3/Friday. Nonetheless, the development of a strong (i.e.
40-50 kt) southerly low-level jet will aid in the northward
advancement of enough moisture to support scattered thunderstorm
development Friday night into early Saturday morning. Forecast
soundings depict a stable nocturnal boundary layer over central TX
to far southwestern OK, but with 7.5-8.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates
overspreading this stable, moist layer, yielding 500-1000 J/kg
MUCAPE, generally above 850 mb. Given the strong low-level jet, and
an approaching westerly 500 mb wind maximum rotating around the
amplifying trough, strong deep-layer shear is expected. Forecast
soundings show elongated hodographs, with approximately 50 kts of
effective bulk shear noted. Elevated multicells are expected, likely
accompanied by at least small hail. However, if trends in increasing
buoyancy are noted in future guidance, severe hail probabilities may
be needed in future outlooks.

..Squitieri.. 11/26/2025

$$