


Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
096 ACUS03 KWNS 150723 SWODY3 SPC AC 150722 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible Friday into Friday night from the southern and central Plains into the lower Missouri Valley. ...Southern and Central Plains/Lower Missouri Valley... A mid-level trough will move eastward across the central Rockies on Friday, as southwest flow remains in place over much of the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward across the central Plains as moisture advection takes place over the southern Plains and Ark-La-Tex. Low-level convergence along and just ahead of the front will lead to thunderstorm development by early Friday evening from Iowa into northwestern Missouri and eastern Kansas. Additional storm formation is expected in southern Kansas and western Oklahoma during the evening. By early Friday evening, NAM forecast soundings have MLCAPE increasing into the 800 to 1200 J/kg range along a southwest-to-northeast axis of instability from western Oklahoma into southern and eastern Kansas. Along this corridor, 0-6 km shear is forecast to be near 40 knots. This should support an isolated severe threat, with hail and severe wind gusts possible. One limiting factor is that lapse rates are forecast to remain weak. This should help to marginalize any severe threat. As the low-level jet ramps up and moisture advection continues, the severe potential will likely be maintained into the overnight period. ..Broyles.. 10/15/2025 $$