170
ACUS03 KWNS 201931
SWODY3
SPC AC 201931

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0131 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the Southwest into the
southern Plains and Southeast on Saturday, though severe
thunderstorm potential appears low.

...Synopsis...
An upper-level low will translate to an open wave while impinging on
the southern High Plains, with a broad mid-level trough poised to
traverse the Eastern Seaboard on Saturday. As a result, widespread
surface high pressure will overspread much of the central and
northern CONUS, limiting thunderstorm potential for these areas.
Adequate moisture ahead of the surface cold front, along with
frontal convergence, will encourage isolated to scattered
thunderstorm development Saturday afternoon and evening across
portions of eastern TX to the Carolina coastline. A few lightning
flashes are also possible across portions of AZ into NM as cold air
aloft from the upper low coincides with synoptic ascent of a
marginally moist, unstable airmass. Low-level moisture may be
locally more robust into western TX, where surface lee troughing,
encouraged by the approaching mid-level trough, will promote
warm-air/moisture advection from the Gulf. While the moist
southeasterly flow beneath 60-80 kt southwesterly 500 mb winds will
promote strong low-level shear, modest mid-level lapse rates atop a
stable boundary layer should limit the severe threat.

..Squitieri.. 11/20/2025

$$