096
ACUS03 KWNS 150723
SWODY3
SPC AC 150722

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0222 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated large hail and severe wind gusts will be
possible Friday into Friday night from the southern and central
Plains into the lower Missouri Valley.

...Southern and Central Plains/Lower Missouri Valley...
A mid-level trough will move eastward across the central Rockies on
Friday, as southwest flow remains in place over much of the Great
Plains and Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a cold front will
advance southeastward across the central Plains as moisture
advection takes place over the southern Plains and Ark-La-Tex.
Low-level convergence along and just ahead of the front will lead to
thunderstorm development by early Friday evening from Iowa into
northwestern Missouri and eastern Kansas. Additional storm formation
is expected in southern Kansas and western Oklahoma during the
evening.

By early Friday evening, NAM forecast soundings have MLCAPE
increasing into the 800 to 1200 J/kg range along a
southwest-to-northeast axis of instability from western Oklahoma
into southern and eastern Kansas. Along this corridor, 0-6 km shear
is forecast to be near 40 knots. This should support an isolated
severe threat, with hail and severe wind gusts possible. One
limiting factor is that lapse rates are forecast to remain weak.
This should help to marginalize any severe threat. As the low-level
jet ramps up and moisture advection continues, the severe potential
will likely be maintained into the overnight period.

..Broyles.. 10/15/2025

$$