679
ACUS03 KWNS 041930
SWODY3
SPC AC 041929

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 PM CDT Sat Oct 04 2025

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The threat for organized severe storms currently appears low on
Monday.

...Synopsis...
A deep mid/upper-level trough will remain in place across much of
central Canada into the north-central CONUS on Monday. A series of
low-amplitude shortwaves will move through the southern portion of
this trough from the northern Rockies/High Plains into the Great
Lakes. At the surface, a cold front will move through parts of the
south-central Plains into the Midwest and southern Great Lakes.

In the wake of morning convection, modest low/midlevel moisture and
some diurnal heating/destabilization will support isolated to widely
scattered storm development along the frontal corridor during the
afternoon and evening. A separate zone of thunderstorm development
will be possible from parts of the lower/mid MS Valley into the OH
Valley, in association with deeper moisture and a low-amplitude
midlevel vorticity maximum that may emerge from the Gulf.

In general, weak instability and only modest deep-layer flow/shear
near the front are expected to limit organized-severe potential. One
exception may be from parts of eastern NM into the TX Panhandle,
where post-frontal easterly low-level flow will result in veering
wind profiles, somewhat elongated hodographs, and some strong-storm
potential. However, uncertainty remains regarding the magnitude of
low-level moisture and instability within this post-frontal regime.
Another exception may be across the southern Great Lakes, where
somewhat stronger deep-layer flow may overspread the front, but most
guidance only suggests very weak destabilization across this area
through late afternoon.

..Dean.. 10/04/2025

$$