482
ACUS03 KWNS 141931
SWODY3
SPC AC 141930

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday
across portions of the central Plains.

...Central Plains...
A positively-tilted trough will move eastward through the northern
Great Basin and eventually reach the central High Plains by
Wednesday morning. A weak surface trough and cold front are forecast
to be positioned within the northern Plains stretching southwestward
into the central High Plains. Surface dewpoints ahead of the front
will be in the upper 50s to low/mid 60s F. Surface heating should
allow moderate buoyancy to develop from Kansas into
Minnesota/Wisconsin during the afternoon. With the trough generally
expected to arrive later in the period. Forcing for ascent will not
be well-timed with diurnal heating. That being said, forecast
soundings do indicate minimal inhibition during the afternoon.
Should storms develop, there would be some potential for damaging
winds to occur. The ECMWF as well as available CAMs are more
supportive of this scenario than the NAM/GFS. Shear will not be
overly strong and it will be parallel to the cold front. However it
should be sufficient for a few marginally severe storms. The
probabilities were shifted slightly northwestward to account for
recent trends in guidance.

...North Carolina/Virginia Tidewaters...
A coastal low will continue to drift northward on Tuesday. Low-level
shear will be enhanced near and just to the north of the circulation
center. Whether sufficient buoyancy can develop inland remains a
question given precipitation and cloud cover. The likelihood of a
stronger storm moving onshore remains too low for probabilities.

..Wendt.. 09/14/2025

$$