410
ACUS03 KWNS 101831
SWODY3
SPC AC 101830

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the
U.S. Wednesday through Wednesday night.

...Discussion...
Models indicate that large-scale mid/upper ridging, inland of the
Pacific coast at the outset of the period, may slowly expand east of
the Great Plains through the Mississippi Valley, while broad
downstream troughing is maintained across the Atlantic Seaboard
through Labrador Sea and Baffin Bay vicinity.  Upstream, an
initially significant trough may continue digging toward the Pacific
coast, but perhaps not as fast as upstream ridging builds eastward
across the mid-latitude Pacific.  As the troughing approaches the
Pacific coast late in the period, it may begin to split, with one
mid-level cold core perhaps digging a bit more sharply toward Oregon
and California coastal areas.

Spread is evident among the various model output concerning
developments across the Pacific Coast vicinity, but it does appear
that the mid-level cold core will be preceded inland by a frontal
precipitation band with embedded convection late Wednesday evening
through Wednesday night.  Due to relatively warm mid-levels,
thermodynamic profiles within this regime are not expected to
support an appreciable risk (10 percent or greater) for convection
capable of producing lightning.  Better potential may develop
beneath the colder (including 500 mb temperatures at or below around
-24 C) post-frontal mid-level environment.  But, it appears that
this may not spread inland until after 12Z Thursday.

Otherwise, while gradual surface pressure falls commence to the lee
of the Rockies, low-level moisture return on southerly low-level
flow off the western Gulf Basin is not forecast to yield appreciable
destabilization through at least this period.

..Kerr.. 11/10/2025

$$