264
ACUS03 KWNS 010652
SWODY3
SPC AC 010651

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0151 AM CDT Wed Oct 01 2025

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.
Friday through Friday night.

...Discussion...
Across the eastern Pacific through western Atlantic, guidance
generally indicates that weaker, but more amplified flow will
prevail across the mid-latitudes through this period, with a
stronger, more progressive regime in somewhat higher latitudes
(near/north of the Canadian/U.S. border).  Large-scale ridging may
continue to build offshore of the North American Pacific coast, with
both streams largely in phase.  While one downstream short wave
trough may progress across the Canadian Rockies into the Canadian
Prairies Friday through Friday night, it appears that another more
notable perturbation may continue to dig across the Sierra Nevada
into the Great Basin.

Farther east, broad mid-latitude mid-level ridging may slowly shift
eastward across the Ohio Valley through Mid Atlantic vicinity, while
in lower latitudes weak mid/upper troughing persists across the Gulf
Basin into southwestern Atlantic.

Beneath this regime, it appears that expansive surface ridging will
persist, but continue to slowly weaken, from the Gulf Coast and
southern Great Plains into the mid-latitude western Atlantic.  While
surface troughing may modestly deepen across the northern Great
Plains into the lee of the Front Range, a substantive return flow of
low-level moisture emanating from the Gulf Basin will continue to be
impeded.  Even so, some continuing gradual increase in surface dew
points appears possible along and southeast of the surface
troughing, which may contribute to modest diurnal boundary-layer
destabilization beneath a plume of steepening lapse rates associated
with north-northeastward advecting elevated mixed-layer air.
However, it appears that inhibition associated with the warm air
aloft and weak mid/upper forcing for ascent will tend to inhibit
vigorous thunderstorm development.

Weak destabilization associated with large-scale ascent and
mid-level cooling may contribute to scattered thunderstorm
development across a large portion of the Great Basin into adjacent
Rockies Friday into Friday night, with additional thunderstorm
development probable within a residual seasonably moist environment
across the Florida Peninsula through northwestern Gulf Basin.
However, guidance remains suggestive that the risk for severe
weather associated with this activity will be negligible.

..Kerr.. 10/01/2025

$$