598
FXUS63 KEAX 181139
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
539 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- More widespread chances for precip arrive Wednesday night through
Friday with the higher rainfall totals trending towards central
Missouri. No severe anticipated.

- Conditions trending cooler for the second half of the work-week,
nearing seasonal averages by Friday.

- Above-normal conditions return for the weekend into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 328 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

Quiet conditions anticipated for today as a mid to upper level
closed low continues its track to the east just to the north of the
area over IA. Mid to upper level ridging remains just upstream of
our area over the Great Plains with a cut-off low setting up over
southern California. At the surface, a low pressure is beginning to
pass over the area. As the low continues to move to the east this
morning, winds will shift from the south to the north through the
morning hours. For the rest of today, expect skies to clear out
across most of the area. Locations near the MO/IA border may have
lingering cloud cover as the mid to upper level closed low passes
through IA. This will yield a wider spread in high temperatures
today as increased cloud coverage could impede the effects of
daytime heating. Highs along and north of HWY-36 will range from the
mid 50s to low 60s. Areas south of HWY-36 will be warmer ranging
from the low 60s to low 70s. Continued northerly windflow will yield
cooler morning lows (relative to this morning) tomorrow morning,
ranging from the upper 30s to low 40s.

Going into Wednesday, the mid to upper level low will weaken to an
open wave trough as it approaches the Great Lakes Region. Mid to
upper level ridging will continue its track to the east over our
area through the day. The cut-off low near southern California will
eject H500 disturbances through the flow that will start a wet
stretch for the second half of the work-week. Multiple chances for
showers and storms will begin late Wednesday into the overnight
hours primarily south of I-70, near the KS/MO border as a surface
warm front approaches from our south. There is some uncertainty in
how far north the shower potential will extend initially based on
the placement of the warm front. Precip chances linger through
Thursday and become more widespread late Thursday into Friday as the
associated surface low and warm front approach from the southwest.
As this system is passing through the area, precip chances linger
until the predawn hours of Saturday with the wettest day being
Friday. Concerning total precip accumulations from late Wednesday
into early Saturday, there is some uncertainty as LREF 75th-25th
spreads have trended drier since yesterday. Locations near central
MO seem the most favorable to receive 1-2 inches of rain with
chances decreasing farther north. Any flooding concerns remain very
low given recent dry conditions (yielding high FFG values). No
severe is anticipated as instability still remains fairly weak. The
most favorable areas for storms remain just to the south our CWA. As
for temperatures during this time period, multiple rounds of precip
will help moderate temperatures bringing them closer to seasonal
averages by Friday.

Precip chances diminish going into Saturday as the cut-off low
tracks to the east and continues to weaken. The next chance for
precip comes late Monday into Tuesday as another closed mid to upper
level low emerges out of the southwest U.S. High temperatures stay
mostly in the mid 50s to low 60s for the start of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 532 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

Varying conditions this morning with cigs ranging from VFR to
LIFR across the region. VFR conditions become more widespread
later this morning into the afternoon. Winds will shift more
northerly by the early afternoon and increase to around 10-12
kts with day time heating. Winds will then weaken to around 5-7
kts or lower later this evening as diurnal mixing diminishes.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Collier
AVIATION...Collier