302
FXUS63 KEAX 242333
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
533 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain Through This Evening, Followed By Fog Potential

- Cooler Through Midweek, Breezy Winds Tuesday, Again Wednesday

- Rain Friday, Some Snow Potential into Saturday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 400 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

H5 trough axis is moving across eastern Kansas during the late
afternoon hours. The primary vort maxima passed over the MO-KS state
line around 19z this afternoon and will slowly move eastward. The
next round of heavier shower activity has developed, and will
continue to follow the forcing east-northeast across central
Missouri before exiting the forecast area. Lower cloud bases have
arrived with this. Visibilities have dropped below 2 miles with the
afternoon rain shower activity. A few of the stronger showers have
produced in-cloud lightning as detected by GOES GLM. This lightning
and thunder activity has remained very isolated. Through the
evening, a stronger H5 vort max and trough digs into the Northern
Plains. While most of the forcing with this avoids the area, it will
play a role in pushing the current short-wave east of the area, as
well as providing mid-level height rises for a few hours during the
overnight and developing a surface anticyclone. This passes through
sometime after 05z-06z this evening, and will bring an end to most
of the shower activity. This will also start to push a cold front
toward the area. The dry air associated with the cold front though
will take a bit longer to advect from the Plains into the lower
Missouri River Valley. With weakening winds and plenty of moisture
from the precipitation, fog developing overnight through Tuesday
morning is possible. The main factor that could inhibit fog would be
if cloud cover lingers, which limits radiational cooling. But rapid
cooling may not be needed with the rich moisture supply, relative to
cooler seasons, that has moved in during the past 36 hours. Surface
anticyclone then centers over Central Missouri by early Tuesday
afternoon but will continue to push eastward. Any mid-level height
rises will came to an end as the trough over the Northern Plains
moves eastward, which will deamplify any semblance of a ridge into a
brisk zonal flow. Once the anticyclone has moved further east, the
primary temperature cold front starts to move through late Tuesday
afternoon and evening. If there is enough moisture, there is the
possibility for light rain activity. The NBM has held onto some low
end probabilities for light rain Tuesday late afternoon, though will
point out a few deterministic solutions and several current
ensembles remain dry. Will leave slight chances mainly east of Hwy.
65 for late Tuesday.

Wednesday and Thursday, broad surface anticyclone develops across
the Central CONUS that will push a polar airmass across the area.
This will result in afternoon high temperatures in the lower to mid
40s, with overnight lows in the upper 20s. There will be a strong
closed-low system traversing the Great Lakes Region. Central
Missouri may see a stronger pressure gradient Wednesday and
Thursday, resulting in gusty winds, and perhaps wind chills reaching
the lower 30s. The forcing from that closed-low system is progged to
miss our area, thus keeping the forecast dry.

By the end of the week, a strong PV anomaly is expected to develop a
deep trough across the western CONUS with the potential for a
stronger surface cyclone to develop across the Central Plains, with
forcing expanding into the Mississippi River Valley. This will be
the next opportunity for precipitation across the area.
Probabilities for QPF exceeding 0.25 inches has been increasing, and
showing some decent pockets for liquid QPF 0.50-0.75 inches. This
will make for wet travel Friday into Saturday next weekend. There is
potential for subfreezing temperatures to arrive, especially for
north-central and northeast Missouri. At some point between Friday
Night through Saturday, a rain-snow mix is possible. Activity Friday
Night, if there is anything frozen mixed, is not expected to
accumulate. Saturday morning and afternoon though, there are better
probabilities for temperatures dropping below 32F, and could result
in some snow accumulation from north-central Missouri to northeast
and eastern Missouri. It is still difficult to pinpoint amounts at
this time. We are unsure how much moisture return we will actually
get, and, if the forcing for precipitation will occur during the
subfreezing temperatures. There are a lot of factors that could
prevent snow accumulation. There will be potential some FGEN and
other ageostrophic circulations that could enhanced dendrite growth,
but 5.5 to 6 days out, will not be able to pinpoint the exact
location. For now, anticipate north-central, northeast, and eastern
Missouri to experience some travel issues due to winter weather.
Once we get the mid-week anticyclone through here, we should have a
better idea of how future systems could track, as well as a better
idea of pavement temperatures and accumulating potential. There is a
winter p-type bust scenario: The trough lifts northeastward quickly,
and brings much warmer air, giving us only rain.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 526 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

IFR/LIFR conditions will continue through the evening with rain
tapering off near 03z and fog moving in overnight. Visibilities
may get down to 1/4 SM again and ceilings will remain low
through most of Tuesday morning. By late morning into the
afternoon hours, northwesterly winds start to become gusty up to
30 knots and stay elevated through the evening.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Krull
AVIATION...Soria