575
FXUS63 KEAX 011125
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
625 AM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

...Updated 12z Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated Rain Showers Central Missouri This Afternoon

- Below Freezing Temperatures Sunday Morning

- Temperatures Back Into The 60s Next Work Week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 311 AM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

Closed upper-level low is still present across the upper and middle
Mississippi River Valley early this morning, though the main surface
low is well to the east, and trailing cold front is moving southward
out of the Ozarks Region. Areas of cloud cover can still be seen on
satellite imagery this morning though there are a few clear spots.
Expecting one final lobe of vorticity to move southward and provide
weak lift across central Missouri by this afternoon, which may be
enough to generate light rain activity, especially east of Hwy. 65.
GEFS and other synoptic scale ensembles paint about 15-20 percent
probabilities for detectable rain. HREF mean is very light on
precipitation, but many of the CAMs have been depicting some kind of
light development. The boundary layer will be quite dry, so not
everything is expected reach the surface. Thinking only a few
hundredths of an inch of rain may observed if it is able to produce
anything more than a trace. Have placed in slight chance POPs for
our eastern counties through this afternoon.

Saturday Night into Sunday morning, closed-low system shifts east of
the Mississippi River Valley as a mid-level ridge axis shifts
eastward out of the Four Corners Region into the southern Plains.
H5 height falls are progged to expand into the eastern Plains,
fostering the development of surface anticyclone across the Central
and eastern Plains. Prominent AVA regime promoting subsidence
should clear skies out, and winds during the early morning hours on
Sunday should be weak. Radiational cooling will be quite strong, and
Sunday morning lows have trended downward more amongst most available
model guidance over the past few runs. This provides northern
Missouri with temperatures in the upper 20s, with lower 30s south of
Hwy. 50. With increasing probabilities for temperatures below 32F
lasting several hours, have issued a Freeze Warning for the entire
forecast area on Sunday morning. With sunrise on Sunday and ridge
axis pushing eastward, should see a push of warmer air between 925mb-
850mb which should help bump up surface temperatures back into the
mid 50s.

Through the middle of the week, ridge axis will slide eastward but
deamplify with a series of vort maxima ejecting toughing off the
Pacific Northwest Coast. This pushes the surface anticyclone center
east of the area and provides south to southwesterly low-level flow
and WAA. Temperatures should steadily increase through Thursday.
Strong signal for temperatures to return to the mid and upper 60s
through the middle of the week. There is a signal in some ensemble
output for some locations to hit 70. Without any notable forcing,
the forecast remains dry through much of the week, even as the mid-
level flow becomes more zonal. Ensembles are showing low end
probabilities for light rain activity toward the end of the next
work week a trough allows a low pressure system to develop and
sweeps a cold front across the Central CONUS. With this forecast
issuance, favorable timing for rain activity would be Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 623 AM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

Light rain showers possible across central Missouri during the
afternoon hours on Saturday. Area of MVFR stratus is located
over Iowa and eastern Nebraska this morning and moving
southward. Northern Missouri will likely see MVFR ceilings later
this morning, and may impact the STJ terminal. Model trends in
the past few hours indicate the MVFR ceilings scatter out
before they reach the KC Metro terminals. Skies gradually clear
late this evening.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 8 AM CDT Sunday for MOZ001>008-
     011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.
KS...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 8 AM CDT Sunday for KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Krull
AVIATION...Krull