616
FXUS63 KEAX 182339
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
639 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A chance for a few isolated storms this afternoon mainly south
  of I-70.

- Multiple chances for isolated to scattered storms Saturday
  morning and night. A few storms may be strong to severe mainly
  for the northern half of MO. The main threats include heavy
  rainfall and damaging winds.

- Hazardous heat likely building this weekend through the first
  half of next week. Heat indices will range from 100-110 F. An
  excessive heat warning will take effect tomorrow afternoon
  through Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 204 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

A surface warm front will continue to lift northward reorienting
winds across the area out of the south. Increased warm air
advection, the eastward shifting of a H850 thermal ridge over the
western U.S., and good diurnal mixing will lead to warmer
temperatures for today. This afternoon into the evening, there will be a
chance for a few isolated thunderstorms mainly south of I-70 where
more destabilization and less convective inhibition is expected.
Better chances for convection will be in areas that experience the
most clearing. For now (as of 17Z), VIS satellite shows patches of
cloud breaks farther east near Moberly. Most of the Hi-Res models
keep convection very sparse south of I-70. In areas that do develop
storms, limited shear (0-500MB shear values ranging from 15-25 kts)
suggest more short-lived pulse-like storms. The main threats will be
isolated sub-severe wind gusts (noted by inverted-v soundings and
DCAPE values around 600-700 J/kg) and a few brief heavy rainfalls
(PWATs ranging around 2 inches and tall skinny CAPE profiles).

Early Saturday morning, a H500 disturbance extending from troughing
west of the Great Lakes Region will initiate an MCS over IA which
will track to the southeast. There will be a chance for a few
isolated to scattered storms mainly north of I-70. A few of these
storms could produce isolated severe conditions including. Strong
winds and brief heavy rainfall appear to be the main threats. The
highest risk for severe weather will be north of a line from the KC
Metro to Macon highlighted by the SPC Day 1 Marginal Risk (1/5). The
MCS is anticipated to be weakening as it enters northern MO as our
environment will be less favorable for severe.

The main uncertainty that remains is the intensifying of a 25-35 kt
low-level jet nosing into our area near the KC Metro. The addition
of the low-level jet could increase the severe potential as well as
allow storms to linger longer than expected through early Saturday
morning.

Saturday afternoon, mid to upper level ridging shifts farther east
along with the H850 thermal ridge. Deep mixing will allow
temperatures to climb. Possible morning convection could keep
temperatures in the upper 80s for areas north of I-70. However, high
temperatures south of I-70 may likely reach the upper 90s.
Persistent southerly winds will allow dew points to reach the mid
70s resulting in heat indices in the low triple digits for areas
south of I-70. Heat headlines have been issued starting Saturday
afternoon.

Saturday evening into the night, a surface low and its associated
warm front eject out of the Front Range tracking to the northeast.
This, combined with the low-level jet re-intensifying overnight will
bring additional chances for severe weather across the area. The low-
level jet will nose into the eastern portion of the MO/IA border
(highlighted well by the Day 2 Slight Risk) increasing low-level
convergence thus, lift for storms. The main threats at this time
look to be heavy rainfall and damaging winds. There will be a stout
capping inversion over the area which suggests storms may be
elevated. Some uncertainty still exists with the timing and
placement of the features. Mid to upper level ridging over the
southeastern U.S could push the system farther north limiting the
severe risk for our area. Also, potential morning convection could
also impact available energy for the evening rounds.

For the rest of the weekend into the first half of next week,
hazardous heat is expected as mid to upper level ridging approaches
and then moves through the area. Simultaneously, the 850 MB thermal
ridge pushes through the area and our winds remain out of the south
with a surface high parked in the southeast U.S. Heat indices
ranging from 105-110 F will make extended periods of outdoor
activity dangerous. There is some uncertainty that areas north of I-
70 may be a few degrees cooler as sporadic shortwaves move through
the flow bringing chance for rain. Heat headlines have been issued
and will likely stay in effect through the first half of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 637 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

VFR conditions expected across the TAF sites. Winds will remain SE
to S across the TAF sites through 12z with 5-10kts. Do not
anticipate showers or thunderstorms for the TAF sites. Expect a
potential for showers and thunderstorms mainly northern MO between
12z-15z and while confidence great for the TAF sites with best
chances at KSTJ, there is still potential for KMCI and KMKC so kept
the Prob30 for -TSRA. However removed the Prob30 group from the
KIXD. Expect the stronger thunderstorms to remain north and
northeast of the TAF sites.  Expect BKN250 skies over the TAF sites
after 20z and could see gusts of 16-18kts but confidence is not high
at this time so have kept winds mainly southerly 10-15kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Extreme Heat Watch from Monday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening for MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025.
     Extreme Heat Warning from noon Saturday to 7 PM CDT Wednesday
     for MOZ028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.
KS...Extreme Heat Watch from Monday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening for KSZ025-102.
     Extreme Heat Warning from noon Saturday to 7 PM CDT Wednesday
     for KSZ057-060-103>105.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Collier
AVIATION...WFO EAX