755
FXUS63 KEAX 142047
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
247 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above-normal temperatures and dry conditions continue through
  Saturday.

- A weak, dry cold front will bring a wind shift Saturday
  afternoon. Elevated fire weather conditions are possible
  (60%) before sunset Saturday.

- Temperatures trend cooler starting Sunday, with precipitation
  chances (30-50%) returning Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 242 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

The warmest day of the week is ongoing with highs peaking into the
mid to upper 70s this afternoon. This is occurring as the area sits
east of an axis of high pressure at mid/upper levels that has been
dominating the weather for most of the week.

Tomorrow will mark the beginning of the breakdown of this pattern.
The ridge will be compressed tonight as a trough drops down into the
Great Lakes region. A cold front will follow and expand south
through Saturday. This will be a dry, fairly weak front by the time
it reaches northern Missouri mid-Saturday morning. It does appear
the arrival of the front will be a little earlier than previously
forecast, tempering highs for most locations compared to today.
Still, we`re talking only by a few degrees, and most notable across
northern areas. While a northerly wind shift is expected, gusts will
be equally as unimpressive as the cold, generally remaining in the
15 to 20 mph range, strongest across northern Missouri. We are still
noting the potential for elevated fire weather conditions as a nose
of drier air is mixed down, bringing relative humidity values
down to near 30 percent behind the front. The weaker winds
should help mitigate this concern, however, and the overall
threat is low.

Sunday will be cooler behind the front, though with highs still
generally peaking 5 to 10 degrees above normal as the coldest air
misses the area to the east. The next chance of precipitation will
come on Monday as the ridge finally relents to a compact, closed
midlevel low. The progression of this feature and a shortwave ahead
of it is still uncertain, with most guidance taking the bulk of the
impacts to our north and east, while also trending it further into
the Monday night timeframe. Regardless, the forecast maintains
moderate PoPs (30-50%), highest across northwestern areas of the
CWA. QPF remains on the low end, generally under a tenth of an
inch or two. Further out, ensemble guidance generally favors a
more active pattern as a stronger trough moves onto the west
coast Tuesday and begins progressing east. Currently, this
appears most likely to impact our area in the Wednesday to
Thursday timeframe. While certainty remains low, guidance
suggests much stronger gulf moisture advection which would lend
to a more widespread rain event. Along with this more active
pattern, temperatures will trend toward more seasonable values
for the upcoming week, though still generally remain on the
above-normal side.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1126 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

With the dissipation of fog at KSTJ earlier this morning, all
terminals will remain VFR through the period. Wind will persist out
of the southwest, with gusts generally below 15 knots. A broken high
cloud deck will move in after 04Z ahead of an approaching cold
front. These clouds will clear as the front arrives late in the
period, bringing a wind shift to northwesterly and then north after
18Z. No fog is expected tonight due to the clouds and breezier winds.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Myers
AVIATION...Myers