242
FXUS63 KEAX 090950
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
350 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Breezy conditions today and tomorrow. Today wind gusts will range
  from 20-30 mph. Wednesday morning wind gusts will range from 40-50
  mph. The strongest winds are anticipated for northern MO
  immediately behind the cold front Wednesday morning. A wind
  advisory is in effect for areas north of HWY-36.

* Increasing confidence in much cooler temperatures late this
  week into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 349 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

Ongoing widespread near-freezing temperatures will linger through
the morning hours. However, temperatures will rebound quite nicely
to above-normal this afternoon. A mid to upper level trough,
tracking to the southeast out of the northern Great Plains, will
push a surface low (and associated fronts) through southern MN
towards WI resulting in a strengthened pressure gradient. With
mostly clear skies across the area and just enough diurnal mixing, a
few winds gusts to 20-30 mph will be possible late this morning into
the afternoon. This increased southwesterly windflow, out ahead of
the cold front, will be the catalyst for our warm-up today above
seasonal averages. Highs for today will range mostly in the 50s.
Locations east of I-35 and north of I-70 may see highs in the 40s as
cloud coverage (associated with a ribbon of moisture and a lead H700
shortwave) could impede the effects of daytime heating.

Late Tuesday into early Wednesday, the mid to upper level trough
will make it into WI pushing the surface low and cold front through
the area. As a result, our winds will reorient out of the northwest.
As the pressure gradient strengthens with the low passing to our
north/northeast, winds at H925 increase to near 50 kts. As the cold
front passes and low-level lapse rates steepen immediately behind
the cold front, surface wind gusts will rapidly accelerate to
40-50 mph. Confidence for the strongest winds remains in areas
north of HWY-36. The HREF strongly agrees, giving areas north of
a line from St. Joseph to Macon probabilities of 60%-100% of
winds greater than 45 mph early Wednesday morning. A wind
advisory has been issued for areas north of a line from Holt to
Adair counties from 9Z-14Z. There is a chance that this advisory
could be expanded if higher wind gusts are expected farther
south. The strongest winds taper off late Wednesday morning as
the gradient begins to relax. Concerning precipitation with this
front, there are very low-end chances (below 10%) for a few,
brief snow flurries given how close the saturated layer is to
the dendritic growth zone. The best chance would be for areas
near northeast MO. Confidence is not high enough at this time to
increase PoPs as better moisture and forcing remain to our
north. Therefore, the forecast remains dry for Wednesday morning
for our area. Highs for Wednesday on the backside of the cold
front range in the mid 30s to mid 40s. Some locations near west-
central MO may reach the upper 40s.

For the second half of this week, a stout mid to upper level ridge
shifts eastward over the western U.S. As we remain on the eastern
periphery of the ridge, it seems to keep us mostly dry even with
shortwaves, within the circulation of a robust closed low over
Manitoba/Ontario, pushing through the area. The LREF hints at a
chance for snow flurries on Thursday morning, however confidence in
timing and location remains too low at this time add a mention to
the forecast. At the surface, an anomalous high pressure (1 to 2
standard deviations above normal) descends into the Northern Great
Plains this weekend possibly ushering in the coldest temperatures we
have seen so far this year. Highs for this weekend range from the
teens to just above freezing with lows just below zero to the upper
teens. Early next week, heights rise with the eastward shift of the
upper level ridge suggesting temperatures return closer.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1106 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

VFR conditions through the period. Breezy southwest winds
through the period, with strong cold front approaching from the
north after 06Z Wednesday.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Wind Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM CST Wednesday for MOZ001>008-
     011-015>017.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Collier
AVIATION...BT