132
FXUS63 KEAX 041142
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
642 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures and calm weather continue for the
  next 2 days.

- Showers and storms return late Sunday night into Monday.
  Highest storm chances reside across far NE KS and NW MO. More
  isolated showers and storms are possible from Louisburg to
  Moberly and points NW.

- Temperatures cool back toward seasonal normals next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 340 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

One might think that the upper level weather pattern is the same as
we were looking at 24 hours ago. Indeed, looking at mid-level water
vapor imagery shows a fairly similar pattern with expansive 500mb
ridging in the east and a digging trough in the west. However, the
western trough has migrated eastward with its center over southern
NV instead of off the Pacific coast from last night. The central
CONUS ridge, while slightly weakening, continues to remain in place
and relatively stationary. This means that the pressure gradient
between the two systems is compressing resulting in accelerated
south southwesterly flow into the region. This will be most notable
with relatively gusty winds today and tomorrow reaching 20-30 MPH
each day. There are marginal fire concerns especially across open
cropland when the winds are combined with antecedent dry vegetation.

Above average temperatures continue. Usually southerly flow promotes
warm air advection and a further boost in temperatures; however, the
combined breakdown of the ridge across the central CONUS, the broad
high across the eastern seaboard, and an embedded low across the
Gulf coast results in the flow of low level warmer Gulf air and
moisture being truncated and not making it much north of the I-40
corridor. While more established surface warm air advection will
stay south, solar heating and mixing of warmer 850mb air will still
be able lift high temperatures into the upper 80s.

The western low will get a boost toward the east from a secondary
longwave trough that enters the Pacific northwest. This forces the
first low NE. Compression against the high catalyzes frontogenesis
across the central Plains late Sunday night into Monday. This will
act as a low level initiator of storms with upper level CVA and
broad 500mb divergence as air enters into a jet streak aloft
maintain storms even after the surface front has progressed. The
risk for strong to severe weather remains marginal at best with the
better environment being located over central KS where the exit
region of the LLJ is likely to be placed. Lee cyclogenesis across the
TX/OK panhandles looks to draw CAA across KS slowly decreasing
convective variables through the night. However, notable divergence
aloft thanks in part the entrance region of a 500mb jet streak
situated from NE to eastern Canada will likely keep at least
isolated storms going through much of the night.

The dueling of the high to the east and the low traversing
northeastward (which is the expected movement Sunday night through
Monday) results in the precipitation chances Sunday and Monday being
concentrated north and west of a line from Louisburg to Moberly and
points NW. The greatest probabilities and coverage will be in far NE
KS and NW MO where likely rain chances linger for several hours
Monday. PWAT values remain climatically impressive, around 1.5
inches, even though the traditional avenue of moisture flow from the
Gulf is hampered. PWAT values that elevate do suggest a potential
for heavy downpours and possibly localized short term flooding from
runoff; however, the ground remains dry from the ongoing
precipitation deficit ongoing for the past several weeks.

Extended guidance shows the pattern beginning to open up with lower
amplitude longwaves enabling more progressive flow across the
county. This opens up the region to more northerly flow ushering in
cooler air and more seasonal conditions. Highs through much of next
week remain in the 70s making some runs toward 80 degrees by the end
of the week. Long range guidance has also been more than happy to
suggest multiple potential systems traversing the area presenting
some opportunities for additional rainfall and help close the nearly
3 inch accumulation deficit since September 1.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 641 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

Breezy VFR conditions are expected for the duration of the
forecast period. Southerly winds accelerate after sunrise with
gusts around 20-25 knots possible. Gusty winds persist through
sunset.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pesel
AVIATION...Pesel