624
FXUS63 KEAX 030528
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1128 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Sunny and cold today. Some solar assisted snow melt could
  lead to refreezing overnight.

- Slight chance for freezing drizzle across areas north of
  US-36 Wednesday morning. Flurries to light snow showers are
  possible Wednesday late morning through afternoon. Snow
  accumulations expected to be less than 0.25 inches.

- Much colder temperatures arrive Thursday with highs in the
  10s to 20s. Overnight lows in the single digits to below zero.

- Potential for more snow this weekend as well as a noticeable
  warm up next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

Midlevel ridging has cleared out skies across the region. Northwest
flow combined with solar reflection off the snow pack keeps
temperatures near to just above freezing today. Sunshine will likely
melt some of the snow; however, temperatures will look to dip back
below freezing shortly after sunset. This may lead to some patches
of refreezing overnight of treated roadways where some snow has
melted as well as some bridges and elevated surfaces.

Flow turns more southerly Wednesday as the ridge axis passes by the
previous overnight. Some CVA aloft combined with a southward moving
surface front may produce some light precipitation Wednesday. Just
ahead of the front, saturated low levels combined with just enough
lift could bring some freezing drizzle across areas north of US-36
to the MO/IA border. While no ice accumulations are anticipated,
this could make travel hazardous. As the front progresses, the
temperature profile quickly sinks to below freezing transitioning
precipitation to scattered post frontal snow flurries/showers. This
should affect most of the region as it progresses through the area
from late morning through the afternoon. Any snowfall is expected to
be fairly minimal with accumulations around a trace to 0.25 inches
possible. The stout Canadian high pressure system that follows
behind the front sinks temperatures further with highs on Thursday
only expected to reach the mid to upper 20s. Overnight lows range
from -5F to 10F with the potential of wind chills ranging from -15F
to 0F. Mid to upper level flow turns more zonal to end the week with
southerly flow at the surface. This will start a relative warming
trend allowing highs to climb back above freezing as the weekend
approaches.

Speaking of the weekend, extended guidance shows late Saturday into
early Sunday being our next chance for substantial precipitation. A
deep upper level shortwave is progged to swiftly move through the
region Sunday. As it does so, a midlevel lee trough develops
sparking another opportunity for snowfall across the region.
However, like most systems, the placement of the warm and cold side
will significantly affect who sees snow versus rain and how much of
each will fall. Early presentations of this upper level wave creates
some uncertainties as rather than being a cut off low or a deep
digging trough, this looks to be a strong embedded wave. This
complicates various forecast variables including storm strength and
track. There is also a chance for nothing to happen if this wave
does not materialize.

Long term guidance into next week shows an interesting scenario where
temperatures could bounce back above 50 degrees. Low level warm air
advection, solar heating, and ridging preceding the arrival of these
temperatures certainly pose the potential for a warming trend.
However, swift upper level NW flow through the vertical profile with
the potential for gusts seems disconnected from the meteorological
conceptual model leading to diminished confidence in that outcome.
That said extended ensemble guidance does put a 40-50 percent
probability of temperatures exceeding 50F; so, there is a
chance.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1125 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

Stratus cloud deck is moving through the area this morning. So
far ceilings have been MVFR. These will lower throughout the
day. Cold front starts to push through northern Missouri. While
the low levels are fairly dry, there could be some light flurry
activity where temperatures are below freezing, with drizzle or
sprinkles with warmer temperatures. This may bring IFR
conditions to some spots this afternoon. Once the front passes,
high pressure should improve flight categories heading into
Wednesday night.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pesel
AVIATION...Krull