548
FXUS63 KEAX 200930
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
330 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Additional chances for widespread showers and storms arrive late
Thursday into Friday. No severe anticipated. Forecasted rainfall
totals range from .5-1.5.

- Conditions trending cooler into Friday, however conditions remain
above seasonal averages.

- Precip chances (20-40%) return Monday as the next system moves
  through. Better chances remain farther south near southern MO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

The next couple of days will be mostly cloudy with multiple chances
for precip. The current synoptic pattern is defined by a flattened
mid to upper level ridge over our area with a weakening system
moving through the southwest U.S. A surface low emerging out of the
Front Range with a warm front collocated with a H700 shortwave has
provided enough lift for a few light showers this morning across the
area. Since yesterday evening into this morning, these showers have
not produced more than a few light showers/drizzles. With the
increased moisture and calm winds, widespread light fog is
anticipated this morning with pockets of dense fog possible. The
HRRR suggests the most likely areas will be near I-70 and north
(where most of the precip fell). Light showers will continue along
and north of I-70 and east of I-35 through the predawn hours with
additional rounds also south of I-70. Some light showers with a few
embedded storms have reached the southern edge of our CWA (near
Linn, Henry, and Bates counties). No severe is anticipated with
these storms, however a few lightning strikes and rumbles of thunder
are possible through the predawn hours. Hi-res models suggest
showers and storms continue to track to the east and decay. By the
late morning/early afternoon, any lingering fog or showers should be
mostly dissipated (or to the east of our area), however mid to upper
level clouds will linger through the day. Guidance solutions diverge
on cloud coverage. A few models suggest the potential for a few
breaks in cloud coverage while other keeps some low-lying stratus
through the afternoon. Either way, do not expect to see much of the
sun today. As a result, high temperatures today could be impeded.
The NBM came in a little warmer than anticipated, so decided to
coordinate with neighboring offices to cool max Ts a few degrees.
Highs are expected to range in the upper 50s to low 60s. But again,
given the extensive cloud coverage, highs could stay closer to the
lower end of that range.

Through the day, the previously-mentioned system will continue to
transit through the southwest U.S. The mid to upper level trough
then turns north/northeasterly towards our area. At the surface, the
low will have emerged out of the Front Range pushing the warm front
farther north into the area. As a result, additional, widespread
precip chances return late Thursday into Friday. A drier air mass
associated with a surface high to our north will diminish precip
chances quickly on the northern edge of the showers just to north of
our area in southern IA. No severe weather is anticipated given the
very limited instability, but a few, brief downpours are possible.
Forecasted rain totals for Friday range from around .5-1.5 with
most favorable areas north of I-70 and south of HWY-36. Even with
recent light rains, flash flood guidance (FFG) values are not
impressed and still remain high, keeping any concerns of flooding
very low. Precip chances taper off late Friday into Saturday as the
system tracks to the east of the area.

For the weekend, mid to upper level ridging remains prevalent
clearing out skies and keeping winds weak, making for comfortable
conditions. Highs remain above normal, ranging in the mid 50s to low
60s. Next chances for precip arrive Monday with another closed upper
low emerging out of the southwest U.S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1059 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

This remains a very a uncertain forecast as high clouds are
obscuring the low clouds, inhibiting any ability to track the
low clouds. Additionally, guidance is handling the low-level
moisture very poorly with models ranging from socked in with low
clouds and fog to nothing at all. The HRRR and the RAP seem to
be handling the low clouds the best. However based on
observations they may be a bit too aggressive with the
northwestward development. Satellite could confirm this but as
mentioned, high clouds are completely obscuring the low clouds.
So the northwestward push of the low clouds remains very
uncertain. That said, it still seems likely at some point
overnight the KC area terminals will see IFR ceilings and
visibility as the low clouds eventually fill in. There may be
some breaks tomorrow in the low clouds, and visibility will very
likely become VFR, but conditions deteriorate again soon after
sunset to IFR. Rain also moves into the area from the south.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Collier
AVIATION...CDB