220
FXUS63 KEAX 082350
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
550 PM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Chances for appreciable precipitation exit the area eastward
  through the remainder of the afternoon/evening.
  - Sprinkles/flurries possible tonight with second push of cold air

* Coldest temperatures of the season settle in...
  - Coldest Day: Sunday - highs in the 30s
  - Coldest Morning: Monday - lows in the upper teens to low 20s
  - Wind Chills: Teens Sunday AM, approaching 10 deg F or
    colder Monday AM


* Temperatures rebound in earnest by Tuesday and through
  remainder of the week, including low-mid 70s by Friday into
  next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 251 PM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

A tale of two days, at least through mid-afternoon, across the CWA
today. Southern areas (into central Missouri) generally saw a
seasonally warm day, albeit cloudy, with highs into the upper 50s to
mid 60s and SW to W winds. While northern and northwest Missouri and
northeast Kansas were notably more miserable with bits of light
rain, mostly cloudy skies, and a cold frontal passage with NW wind
gusts greater than 30 mph and falling temperatures. Said frontal
position, as of 3pm, had traversed a majority of the CWA or roughly
the NW 1/3 to 1/2 of Missouri.

For the remainder of the afternoon and evening, strong CAA and
downward momentum will allow gusty conditions to continue. Current
gusts across the area in the upper 20s to mid 30s mph are poised to
continue, especially with the strongest CAA push most immediately
behind the front. By/after dusk, gusts should ease, but sustained
winds 10 to 15 mph or greater should continue. A secondary CAA push,
associated with northern stream shortwave dropping down the backside
of the larger trough, will provide another period of steepening low
level lapse rates and enhanced downward momentum resulting in likely
gusts once again into the upper 20s to mid 30s mph. This shortwave
too will provide an opportunity for a few sprinkles/flurries as it
drops through the area as various hi-res soundings do continue to
depict some shallow instability. Of note, the areal potential for
this, let alone overall probability, appears to have eased with a
narrower band of moisture depicted across guidance. Regardless,
impacts should be minimal to nil given the overnight passage and
very light nature if at all. High end scenario would suggest a "robust"
shower and some brief visibility reduction enhanced by the night
time nature. Wind gusts carry on into morning as no boundary layer
decoupling anticipated, but ease by late morning and early afternoon
as winds aloft begin to ease. Have collaborated with most neighbors
to drop temps Sunday a couple degrees vs baseline NBM given how
temps have been handled today and upstream. Expect Sunday morning
lows in the mid 20s to low 30s and highs only in the 30s across the
area. For many, this would be around 20 degrees below normal this
time of the year. Given aforementioned winds, wind chills down into
the teens to low 20s during the early morning and rising into the
20s to lower 30s by the afternoon.

The very cold conditions bottom out Monday morning on the heels of
what should be clear to mostly clear skies and easing winds as a
surface high drops into/through Kansas. Similar to Sunday, have
collaborated to drop temperatures a little vs base NBM, resulting in
lows largely in the upper teens to around 20. Degree of decoupling
may determine where the "bottom" is so to speak, leaving western
areas most likely to outpace current forecast, while eastern areas
may be just windy enough to prevent the bottom from falling out.
Lighter winds will prevent wind chill from being too much worse, but
may approach the upper single digits and pre-teens for the Monday
morning commute. Bundle up! Temperatures do rebound a bit Monday
with the clear skies and lighter winds, but lack of true southerly
flow/WAA as surface high passes through will limit highs to the
upper 30s to low 40s.

More rapid warm up greets the region by Tuesday as the large scale
pattern sees deep trough slide eastward and allow mid-upper level
height rises and southerly surface winds to prevail. This should
allow highs to ramp back up into seasonable territory in the 50s and
60s much of the week. More traditional mid-upper level ridging
begins to traverse central CONUS late week into the weekend, further
pushing temperatures upward, with highs back into the low to mid 70s
blanketing most of the area Friday/Saturday. Throughout this time,
dry conditions to prevail. The next precipitation opportunity may
arrive latter half of the weekend, but substantial uncertainty/lack
of agreement noted among synoptic guidance when perusing ensemble
meteograms or similar guidance.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 544 PM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

A period of VFR conditions precede MVFR CIGs which are moving
in from the NW. Blustery conditions and lowered CIGs persist
through the night. Another wave moves through the area during
the overnight bringing some chances for -SHRA and/or -RASN.
After sunrise, CIGs rise back to VFR while gusty NW winds
persist.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Curtis
AVIATION...Pesel