640
FXUS63 KEAX 152304
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
604 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Well above normal temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s
  continue through Friday
  - At this point in the season, to around 15 deg above normal

* Next chance for thunderstorms arrives Friday into Friday night and
  may continue into Saturday
  - A few strong to isolated severe storms will be possible
  - Main Threats: Strong to damaging winds and small hail
  - Where: Primarily eastern KS and western MO

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 314 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

The general trend for today has been for clearing skies across
Central Missouri to partly cloudy skies northward to the Iowa
border. And rather than being on the dry side across the forecast
area, low-mid level isentropic lift has continued to drive scattered
weak showers around/atop the larger mid level ridge. Nothing of real
consequence other than periodic light rain (a couple/few hundredths
of an inch) interspersed with bits of sunshine. This weak activity
will continue to stream across northern Missouri and southern Iowa
into this evening. There should be a break in this low-mid level
activity overnight, before one more lobe/wave of low-mid level
moisture and isentropic lift wraps into and across Northern
Missouri, again based/centered around 700mb, through the morning
hours Thursday. Once again, just scattered light rain to sprinkles
anticipated. Much drier air begins to move in by the late morning
and afternoon Thursday, putting an end to precipitation activity and
further clearing skies across the wider area. Temperatures will
continue to be well above normal in the low to mid 80s, equating to
around 15 degrees above normal. Concurrently, existing large Western
CONUS mid-upper level cutoff low/trough will drift across the
Intermountain West and amplify mid-upper ridging over the area,
further bolstering drying and clearing conditions.

Large scale pattern becomes more active Friday into the weekend as
the Western CONUS trough drifts NE and into the Northern Plains. Lee
Cyclogenesis/surface low development will push a cold frontal
boundary across the Central Plains, approaching the area Friday
afternoon/evening. Synoptic guidance remains in fair agreement with
general arrival timing, but have begun to waffle on how quickly the
front moves across the area. Regardless, initial expectations remain
the same for scattered to widespread showers/storms. MUCAPE remains
on the weaker side, ~500 J/kg and greater just to the SW of the
area, concurrent with 0-6km shear values to around 40kts. It is
possible a stronger storm is able to be realized, esp if higher
MUCAPE values are realized, but continued weak depictions of profile
lapse rates and more parallel to boundary shear vectors tend to tamp
down risk. So... the SPC Marginal Risk on Day 3 (Friday/Friday
night) appears reasonable. Main threat would be strong to damaging
winds. Some periods of heavy rain likely pushes a few areas >1"
of rainfall, but at least initially progress front and
antecedent dry conditions limits flooding potential. The
guidance waffling on the frontal progression plays a larger role
into where Saturday activity will be and to what degree.
Currently SPC carries an Day 4 15% risk across much of Southern
Missouri and further into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Should
the front struggle move south, that risk area may ultimately
reside further north into Central Missouri, esp as moist
southerly flow continues. At the moment, continued moisture
advection and marginally better lapse rates suggest MUCAPE
values into the 1000- 1500 J/kg will be possible with similar
aforementioned 0-6km shear magnitudes. Again, shear vectors
appear mostly parallel to the front as well, tamping down some
strong/severe risk. Winds would be the primary risk, especially
with congealed or linear segments that can orient more
favorably. Isolated warm sector convection may carry an all
modes risk as well, but a fair amount of uncertainty in
potential frontal position as well as storm mode and evolution.
Suffice it to say, storms move through Friday/Friday night with
hopefully beneficial rain amounts and `possibly` Saturday if
frontal timing slows as some runs have suggested.

By Sunday and into next week, tendency is to dry out, but a quick
moving mid-upper shortwave trough moves out of British Columbia/PNW
and into the Central/Northern Plains. Limited moisture with it, but
strong enough lift for persistent depictions of a few showers to be
associated with its passage Saturday evening/overnight. Prevailing
track keeps majority of this activity into Nebraska/Iowa, but may
clip portions of Northern Missouri before it pivots eastward. Dry
air the dominates the area Sunday into early next week as surface
high influence slides in. This also allows temperatures to dive back
towards and just below seasonal normals, into the low to mid 60s
Sunday. Eastward departure of surface high returns southerly flow
and pushes highs back toward or a few degrees above normal in the
upper 60s to mid 70s to begin next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 603 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

VFR conditions anticipated for the duration of the TAF period.
Winds will remain out of the south/southeast. Winds will
increase, occasionally gusting to to around 18-20 kts, starting
late tomorrow morning with diurnal mixing.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Curtis
AVIATION...Collier