918
FXUS63 KEAX 111121
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
621 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmer temperatures arrive today, with afternoon highs in the
  mid 80s for most locations.

- Warming trend continues through Thursday, with highs into the
  mid to even upper 90s and heat indices in the 100 to 105
  range for Thursday afternoon.

- Severe thunderstorms will be possible Thursday afternoon and
  evening, with very large hail and damaging wind gusts the
  primary hazards.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 247 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

The current mid level synoptic weather pattern across the CONUS
is largely defined by troughing over the eastern CONUS with ridging
over much of the west central CONUS in association with a 590
dam 500 mb high over NW Mexico. However, this ridging is being
flattened over the north-central Plains by a shortwave trough
coming across the Northern Plains and into the Upper Midwest.
Meanwhile, a subtle mid level low is centered over the Texas
Panhandle. At the surface, a cold front extends to the southwest
from a surface low over southern Manitoba, with non severe
convection out ahead of it over much of east-central Nebraska
and northward into Minnesota with surface high pressure in place
over our region. The result is pleasant conditions with
temperatures mostly ranging from the mid 50s to the mid 60s as
of 3 AM and nearly calm winds across western Missouri and
eastern Kansas.

By this afternoon, the mid level ridge to our west should
strengthen and exert more influence on our area, sending
afternoon highs into the mid 80s for most locations. Also,
increasing south southwesterly low level flow should usher in
some modest moisture return. The aforementioned shortwave
trough moving across the Upper Midwest will send a weak cold
front toward NW Missouri, but should become increasingly diffuse
as it approaches. While model runs from yesterday suggested the
slight possibility of some showers along this front toward the
Iowa border, most recent guidance is much more pessimistic on
these chances, and as such the entire region should remain dry
today.

By Wednesday, the mid level high expands and strengthens over NW
Mexico and the Desert Southwest, with mid level heights
increasing over our region. This should send afternoon highs
into the lower 90s for Wed afternoon. Furthermore, moisture
return should continue, with dewpoints reaching the low to mid
60s by mid afternoon, making it feel a bit more humid. The
ridge strengthens even further on Thursday, with even higher mid
level heights overspreading the region. Highs are currently
projected to reach the mid 90s for most locations with upper 90s
possible over NE Kansas and NW Missouri. With dewpoints in the
upper 60s to lower 70s, afternoon heat indices may reach
100-105 degrees for some locations. A trough is progged to move
out of the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes region on
Thursday, sending a cold front southward toward the region. With
a hot and moist airmass, there will be high instability in
place across the area ahead of the front, with models depicting
an axis of 4000 to 5000 J/kg of ML CAPE and steep mid level
lapse rates. And with 30 to 40 knots of WNW flow at 500 mb, this
should yield roughly 30 to 40 knots of 0-6 km shear. This
environment should support well organized updrafts and the
potential for severe thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and
evening, with very large hail and damaging wind gusts being the
primary hazards. Accordingly, SPC has placed essentially all of
our forecast region within a slight risk for severe weather for
this period.

Well above normal temperatures should continue into next
weekend with slight chances for showers and storms on Saturday
and Sunday, mainly for northwestern Missouri.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 619 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

VFR conditions prevail through the forecast period. High clouds
this morning dissipate after sunrise. Some lower CIG diurnally
CU is expected during the afternoon. Winds persist out of the
SSW.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Williams
AVIATION...Pesel