369
FXUS63 KEAX 082327
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
527 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Breezy conditions on Tuesday and again Wednesday create
  slightly elevated fire danger.

* Cold front moves through the region Tuesday night into
  Wednesday morning with gusty northwest winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 313 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

This afternoon, high pressure that resided over the area this
morning is shifting eastward with modest WAA getting underway in its
wake. This is allowing temperatures to rise back into the 30s to
lower 40s this afternoon. WAA will continue tonight and increase
tomorrow ahead of an approaching cold front with southwest winds
gusting 20 to 30 mph. This strong WAA will drive highs into the mid
40s to mid 50s and lead to a slightly elevated fire weather
concern. Tomorrow night a mid level trough will dig through the
Upper Midwest forcing a cold front through the area. While
there is a very slight chance for a light shower across north
central Missouri, this frontal passage will be mainly dry.
However, strong cold air advection is expected to move in behind
the front with northwest winds ranging from 25 up to 40 mph
late Tuesday night into Wednesday again leading to slightly
elevated fire weather concerns. This will usher in a cooler but
seasonable day with highs in the mid 30s to mid 40s. Surface
high pressure will move into the area Wednesday night allowing
winds to relax with lows in the upper teens to upper 20s.

The next slight chance for precipitation arrives on Thursday as a
mid level shortwave moves through the Upper Midwest. Moisture will
be limited however, enough forcing may produce some very light snow
across northern Missouri. Current NBM probabilities suggests 20%-40%
chance of a dusting of snow north of Highway 36. Probabilities drop
to only 10% of receiving an inch of snow for extreme northern
Missouri along to MO/IA border...consequently, any accumulations are
expected to be very light at this time. Also, the general trend has
been shifting this system northward (lower snow probabilities). This
shortwave will force another cold front through the area Thursday.
Highs across northern Missouri where the front will pass earlier in
the day will be in the low to mid 30s but will rise into the low 50s
across the southwestern CWA where the front will pass later in the
day. CAA will continue through Thursday night into Friday keeping
highs in the mid 20s to mid 30s. Surface high pressure will build
into the area Friday night before another upper trough moves from
the Northern Plains into the Midwest Saturday. Models at this time
keep precipitation associated with this feature north of the area
but will need to be monitored. This system will bring a reinforcing
cold shot holding highs in the upper teens to near freezing. Surface
high pressure is anticipated to build back into the area for the
second half of the weekend with highs in the 20s to mid 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 523 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

VFR flight conditions are expected to be the rule through this
TAF issuance. The main concern will be an increase in wind
speeds and gusts for late Tuesday morning/early afternoon. Gusts
may reach into the 25-30kt range from the southwest. High clouds
will be on the increase over the next few hours before lingering
well into Tuesday morning.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Cooley