701
FXUS63 KEAX 032327
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
527 PM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

...00z Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmer than normal temperatures and dry conditions are
  expected on Tuesday. Widespread wind gusts of 20 to 30 mph
  will lead to elevated fire weather conditions.

- Precipitation chances increase Thursday night with highest
  probabilities (30-40%) across eastern portions of the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 307 PM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

Nearly clear skies are noted across the area this afternoon as a
broad ridge remain in place with the midlevel high centered on
southern Texas. Despite a weak cold front this morning, highs will
peak well into the 60s today. Though the ridge will continue to
dominate, it will get compressed this evening as a shortwave moves
lee of the Rockies. This will turn midlevel flow more westerly, and
with a little increasing moisture aloft will help induce some high
clouds this evening through the overnight hours. No precipitation is
expected with this, however.

This feature will return stronger southwesterly low level flow
tonight, gradually shifting winds from easterly to southwesterly
after sunrise. Southwesterly winds are then expected to stick around
through the day, generally strongest along and south of I-70 before
noon. This area has the best chances of seeing gusts to 30 mph (40-
60%), with most other locations seeing gusts of at least 20 mph. It
should be noted that some hi-res models and ensemble guidance are
showing the potential for higher gusts to around 40 mph south of I-
70 (10-20% chance). These solutions appear to be taking full
advantage of mixing down the forecast 40+ knot wind noted at 850mb.
Regardless, the main impact of winds tomorrow will be elevated fire
weather conditions, though minimum relative humidity values will
generally remain above 30%. The other impact with this strong low
level southwesterly flow will be well-above normal temperatures as
warm air advection is maximized. Highs will peak into the 70s during
peak heating, with areas near and south of the KC metro likely (70-
80%) seeing highs over 75 degrees.

Temperatures will moderate on Wednesday as a weak, dry cold front
drops south due to a wave passing through the Great Lakes. Still,
highs will peak above normal by about 10 to 15 degrees. Further
ahead, guidance is still favoring the return of precipitation
chances Thursday night as a potentially stronger mid level trough
arrives. There does exist quite a lot of uncertainty with the
placement and progression of this feature, however, and the forecast
reflects PoPs on the lower end (30-40%) focused across the eastern
half of the area. This would likely be a quick shot of light
precipitation (generally less than 0.20") Thursday evening through
the early Friday morning hours before it pulls away. The weekend
will see moderating temperatures as the flow becomes more
progressive. This could bring low precipitation chances, but the
forecast currently remains on the dry side through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 525 PM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

VFR conditions to prevail across the area, but once again with
some wind impacts. Winds will continue to shift around this
evening/overnight, settling out of the SW/SSW by the mid morning
hours Tuesday. Wind speeds and gusts too will increase with
gusts into the teens or low 20s kts possible by mid morning and
mid 20s kts or greater after 18z.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Myers
AVIATION...Curtis