929
FXUS63 KEAX 020528
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1128 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

...Updated 06z Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Light to moderate snowfall gradually end west to east this evening.
  - Widespread final amounts generally 1"-4" remain on track
  - Pockets of >4" roughly between US-36 and I-70

* Below normal temperatures continue throughout the week, especially
  by Thursday as a (brief) reinforcing cold blast moves through.
  - Thurs AM lows below zero possible over N Missouri

* Limited or transient opportunities for any measurable
  precipitation (rain, snow, or otherwise) over the next 5-7+
  days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 254 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

As the mid-shift noted, Happy Meteorological Winter! It certainly
greeted the area as such...

The well advertised/forecast mid-upper level PV anomaly/wave moved
out into the Plains today and allowed a fairly expansive area of
light to moderate snow. The parent wave is depicted nicely on GOES
WV imagery, centered back over the TX Panhandle and angle
northeastward from there. Generally only minor deviations from
previous forecasts were seen through the day. Most notably, onset
was an hr or two earlier originally advertised, yielding a messy
morning commute as snow began accumulating throughout the KC Metro
and eastern KS/western MO in general. Much of that may have been
attributed to jet level support that was not well modeled
previously. Additionally, FGEN forcing around 700mb was notably more
modest to transient, helping yield the more widespread 2"-4"
forecast area. As heavier bands did move into/through the area,
conditions quickly degraded, as often noted by prolonged periods of
less then 1/2 to 1/4 mile visibilities noted by various ASOS/AWOS
sites. This too in an environment with effectively no wind, just
falling snow. It was also noteworthy with 18z observations that
measured SLRs were coming in closer to 10:1, likely attributed to a
combination of lack of a deep DGZ and some fracturing in snow
generation levels where stronger winds/turbulence resided. So by
early-mid afternoon, widespread reports of 2" to 3.5" across the KC
metro and amounts to 2.5" or so in central Missouri from around I-70
northward to north of US-36. For the remainder of the afternoon,
radar depicts the back end of snowfall currently angled SW to NE
from near Falls City, NE down through Manhattan, KS and on ward NE
and SW from each respective city. Timing this out, suggests an end
time around 6-7pm for the KC Metro and continuing eastward into the
evening. Continue to use caution when traveling across the region,
it does not take much to cause issues, as seen via KDOT and MODOT
travel maps and accident reports.

As this system exits, the area will find itself largely on the cool
side of zonal to NW flow. Currently synoptic guidance depicts little
opportunity for significant surface features (highs/lows) or
favorable positioning to allow for a significant warm up. In fact,
on the contrary there is a good signal for a brief burst of colder
conditions by Thursday as a surface high drops down and introduces a
reinforcing Arctic airmass. This may drop Thursday AM lows into below
zero territory for parts of northern Missouri. Fortunately, that
depiction is short lived with some moderation in temperatures
quickly afterwards. Either way, expect temperatures to generally
remain below normal for this time of the year throughout the
bulk or all of the going 7 day forecast. Predominantly in the
20s/30s for highs and 10s/20s for lows. For reference, normal
highs are around the mid 40s and lows the mid 20s.

Precipitation wise, there is little notable opportunity for
appreciable precipitation after today. While the pattern does lend
itself toward being on the more active side for this time of the
year (NW flow...), synoptic guidance suggests only transient weaker
waves moving through the flow and mostly dry frontal passage
opportunities. This is reinforced by ensemble guidance with only a
smattering of light QPF depicted among individual members at various
times through the forecast. Suffice it to say, there may be some
light rain/snow opportunities over the next 7+ days, but do not look
to be of any significance. Certainly nothing to the tune of Saturday
or today. The "best" opportunity may be with the cold frontal
passage Wednesday night and then possibly Saturday night into Sunday
depending on the path of a depicted compact shortwave. Tis the
season...

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1125 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

MVFR stratus deck is slowly moving off to the east, and should
be clear of the KC metro and STJ terminals between 08z-10z
Tuesday morning. Watching the potential for fog on the backside
of the stratus deck, but unsure if cooling in clear skies will
allow for fog development. The fresh snowpack may impact this.
Winds remain less than 10kts for most of 06z TAF period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Curtis
AVIATION...Krull