241
FXUS63 KEAX 182327
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
527 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain returns Wednesday night through Friday with the higher
  rainfall totals trending towards central Missouri. No severe
  weather anticipated.

- Rainfall amounts of 0.5" to 2" are forecasted with 0.5" to 1"
  of rain expected north of I-70 and 1" to 2" of rain expected
  south of the interstate as the warm front settles over
  southern Missouri.

- Conditions trending cooler for the second half of the work-
  week, nearing seasonal averages by Friday with highs in the
  50s. Weekend will be dry and sunny.

- Next chance for rain (20-40%) will be on Monday as the next
  system moves through. Higher probabilities are towards
  central Missouri.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 109 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

Today-Wednesday: The surface low is continuing to push northeast
towards the Great Lakes region. Right now, we`re in the dry slot
but the head of the comma cloud will slowly push southeast
towards northern MO and keep their highs in the low 60s. As for
central MO, those highs will still reach the lower 70s. Skies
will stay partly cloudy for the evening but clouds may start to
break up closer to the morning. Model guidance is showing patchy
fog over the area for Wednesday morning and could drop
visibilities down to 1-3 SM at times for the morning commute.
This would likely be due to the warm air advection from the
incoming warm front. The fog formation will depend on if skies
can clear out enough by early Wednesday morning. Lows tonight
will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s.

Wednesday`s high temperatures will be tricky and will be
dependent on the amount of cloud cover. A few models are hinting
at a thicker band of clouds moving in tomorrow which would keep
us a bit cooler. Or, the cloud layer could be rather thin which
wouldn`t impact our temperatures as much. Right now, have highs
in the mid 50s to lower 60s across the area. At least most of
the rain is expected to hold off until Wednesday night as that
warm front starts to lift north.

Rainfall amounts have decreased a bit with areas north of I-70
seeing 1 inch or less and areas south of the interstate getting
1-2 inches. Model guidance has the warm front setting up
somewhere over I-44 from west to east over southern MO. The axis
of heaviest rainfall could fluctuate between now and tomorrow
night, but either way we`ll welcome the beneficial rainfall.
Widespread flooding is not expected for our area, though, we
could see nuisance flooding in urban areas. This rainfall will
help to alleviate the drought and fire weather concerns.

Thursday-Monday: Thursday will be mostly cloudy with areas near
central MO seeing rain intermittently through the day. Areas
north of I-70 will have a lower probability of seeing persistent
rain showers from Thursday through Saturday. Their rain showers
will be even less frequent. Thursday is the day with the highest
rainfall amounts and will likely be the day that we receive the
most rain from this system. Rain will linger into Friday night
for most of the area as the surface low pushes west to east
across the state. Then, a cold front will follow and move
through the area overnight Friday into Saturday. Though, this
front will be rather weak. This weekend will be dry and sunny
as mid-level ridging begins to take place over the Central
Plains. Highs for the end of the week into the weekend will be
in the mid 50s to lower 60s with lows in the 30s and 40s.

Monday is our next chance for rain as that mid-level trough off
the coast of California pushes east into Texas. Rain chances for
Monday are 20-40% with the higher probabilities occurring near
central MO. Most of the higher rainfall totals are located over
central MO at this time, but this could change as the forecast
continues to evolve.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 527 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

Tricky forecast for overnight and tomorrow morning. Currently,
widespread low stratus is evident on satellite and observations
across northern MO and into NE and IA. This is spreading
southward now with the loss of daytime heating and based on
latest guidance, it looks more probable we`ll see low ceilings
and minor visibility restrictions at the terminals vs dense
fog. So have added low MVFR cloud bases overnight into tomorrow
morning with some 5-6 SM fog mentions. It`s quite possible that
dense fog could form on the edges of the stratus but there is
considerable uncertainty in timing that potential given the
variable guidance available. That said, the latest HREF has much
higher probabilities of low clouds, between 1000 and 2000 ft vs
lower clouds and even fog. So leaned heavily into the guidance.
Winds will be light through the forecast and vary from northwest
this evening to the southeast late tomorrow morning.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Soria
AVIATION...CDB