471
FXUS63 KEAX 072004
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
304 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A complex of thunderstorms is expected to move through the
  region from northwest to southeast late tonight into early
  Saturday morning. Damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph and
  locally heavy rainfall will be the primary hazards.

- Additional rounds of storms are possible tomorrow afternoon
  and tomorrow night into early Sunday morning. Marginally
  severe storms and locally moderate to heavy rainfall will be
  possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 223 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

The current synoptic weather pattern across the CONUS is defined
by a mid level low over southern Ontario with associated
troughing over the eastern Great Lakes into portions of northern
Appalachia with a mid level high over Texas. Mid level flow over
western Missouri and eastern Kansas remains out of the WNW
between these two features. At the surface, high pressure
remains in place overhead, with generally fair skies,
temperatures in the mid to upper 80s, and a southerly breeze.
A mid level speed max/subtle shortwave trough over western
Nebraska will continue to the east southeast today and tonight,
with a deepening surface low developing over north central
Nebraska. Severe storms have already begun to initiate over
north central Nebraska as of 230 pm. Meanwhile, further to the
south out over central Kansas, a cluster of showers and
thunderstorms has also developed within an area characterized by
low to mid 60 dewpoints. This should continue to move to the
east through the afternoon hours, but should weaken as it
approaches our CWA as it enters into a drier low level
environment. However, storms over north central Nebraska should
move southeast through the afternoon hours, growing upscale into
a mesoscale convective system and moving northwest to southeast
through the region late this evening into the early overnight
hours. The primary hazard with these storms would be the
potential for damaging wind gusts up to 60 to 70 mph and locally
heavy rainfall on the order of 1 to 2 inches.

Another subtle shortwave/disturbance moves across the Plains
tomorrow afternoon/evening. Scattered storms may develop by mid
to late afternoon toward central Missouri, quickly moving
eastward out of our region. Severe convection is likely to
develop across eastern Colorado and western Kansas by tomorrow
afternoon, moving eastward through the evening hours and growing
upscale into another MCS, moving through our region late
tomorrow night into early Sunday morning. Marginal severe
weather may be possible (60 mph winds and up to quarter sized
hail), but the bigger concern will be the threat for an
additional round of locally moderate to heavy rainfall on top of
what falls tonight, which could create some flooding concerns.
Convective allowing models disagree a bit with the exact
placement of the MCS tomorrow night, with the NAM Nest taking
the heavier rain south of the KC metro, but the 18z HRRR
dropping another 1-2 inches over the KC metro.

Other than slight chance PoPs on Tuesday afternoon, the region
should remain generally dry for Sunday afternoon through
Thursday. Temperatures should be cooler, closer to seasonal
normals, for Sunday through Tuesday with warmer temperatures
returning for Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Currently VFR with south southwest winds around 10 knots at all
terminals. These conditions should generally persist through the
afternoon and evening hours, other than winds turning more
southerly. A complex of thunderstorms along with MVFR CIGs and
VSBY is likely to impact the terminals late tonight (between 5z
and 9z). MVFR CIGs may linger through much of the morning hours
tomorrow, with winds becoming variable but remaining light.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BMW
AVIATION...BMW