408
FXUS63 KEAX 291818
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
118 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and seasonably warm conditions persist through most of this
week. High temperatures ranging in the low to mid 80s.

- Spotty chances (below 30%) for precip arrive this weekend
  primarily for northeast KS and northwest MO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 117 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025

The stagnant weather pattern that has brought us dry and seasonally
warm conditions continues for most of this week. A stout mid to
upper level ridge remains over most of the central U.S. with a
weakening shortwave trough over the Four Corners Region. At the
surface, high pressure prevails over the northeastern U.S. with a
weak low emerging out of eastern CO. For today, as the mid to upper
level ridge continues to influence the area, highs today will remain
in the mid 80s. Mostly clear skies will allow for efficient
radiational cooling, resulting in early morning lows in the upper
50s to low 60s (roughly similar to what we have been experiencing).

For Tuesday, the shortwave trough ejects out of the Four Corners
Region, tracking to the east. The stagnant pattern is reinforced as
the base of the mid to upper level ridge is sandwiched between the
shortwave trough to the west and Tropical Storm Imelda to the east.
As the shortwave trough nears the area, it will continue to fill
amounting to nothing more than increased cloud coverage approaching
mid-week. Due to how dry the atmosphere is, better chances for
precip stay well to our west. For temperatures, highs for Tuesday
remain mostly the same as they have been, around the mid 80s.
Increased cloud coverage slightly impeding the effects of diurnal
heating could yield high temperatures closer to the low 80s mainly
for northeastern KS and northwestern MO.

As we enter the mid-week, a stout mid to upper level low nearing the
Pacific Northwest will help in nudging the whole pattern to the
east. At the surface, another surface high descends out of eastern
Canada keeping our winds out of the south. This, coupled with no
significant change in mid to upper level heights will allow above
normal temperatures to persist into the second half of this week.
Models begin to diverge on solutions around Thursday as they track
the strength and trajectory of the mid to upper level trough over
the Pacific Northwest. For now, it appears low-end chances for
precipitation return early Saturday as the mid to upper level trough
approaches the area. This could result in cooler temperatures
sometime early next week, however uncertainty is high given this
over a week out.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025

VFR conditions anticipated for the duration of the TAF period. A cu
field has begun developing (as of 17Z) around 2-6 kft in addition to
some high clouds (above 20 kft) mainly for eastern KS and
northwestern MO. Winds will remain fairly light and mostly out
of the south/southeast for the next 24 hours.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Collier
AVIATION...Collier