431
FXUS63 KEAX 171745
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1145 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Marginal Risk (1/5) for severe weather this afternoon
  primarily southeast of a line from Macon to Harrisonville.
  Main threats are hail up to quarter sized and wind gusts up to
  60 mph in the stronger storms.

- Elevated fire weather concerns mostly east of Highway 65
  today due to 25-35% min RH values and southeasterly wind gusts
  up to 25 mph. Outdoor burning is discouraged.

- More widespread chances for rain will occur Wednesday night
  through Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 324 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

Mostly quiet conditions are expected this morning with chances
(30-60%) for light showers and a few isolated thunderstorms
arriving this afternoon, possibly lingering into the overnight
hours. Mid to upper level ridging remains dominant over hours
through the morning hours today with a closed upper low tracking
east along the western periphery of the ridge. Simultaneously, a
mid to upper level trough pushes south along the Californian
coast. At the surface, a high pressure tracks to the east of the
forecast area as a low emerges out of the Front Range. As the
low tracks farther east, expect winds to shift more
southeasterly through the day. An increased pressure gradient
(being sandwiched between these two systems) will yield
occasional wind gusts to around 20-25 mph later this morning
through the afternoon. Highs for this afternoon will range in
the upper 50s to low 60s for areas north of I-70 and low to
upper 60s for south of I-70.

As the pattern continues to shift east, the surface low will
continue its approach towards the area. Weak isentropic ascent,
seen on the 295K surface, within the warm sector of the low will
provide lift for a few showers primarily for locations east of
I-35. There will be some instability present (roughly 200-500
J/kg) so, a few thunderstorms cannot be ruled out. However, with
a capping inversion, weak instability, and limited moisture, any
storms that develop are anticipated to remain isolated and sub-
severe in nature. Forecasted rain totals remain below a tenth of
an inch and similar to yesterday, models continue to trend drier
for most areas. Guidance suggests showers and storms move to the
east of the area during the predawn hours of Tuesday.

For Tuesday, broad mid to upper level ridging follows behind the
closed upper low that has weakened to an open wave trough. At
the surface, the low moves through the area reorienting out of
the north as it tracks to the east. Lingering cloud coverage
from the previous system could impede solar heating mainly for
areas north of HWY-36. This will likely result in a large spread
in temperatures as areas farther south should be able to clear
out more quickly. Highs along and north of HWY-36 will range
from the mid 50s to low 60s and areas south will see low 60s to
low 70s.

Precip chances return late Wednesday into Thursday as the
aforementioned mid to upper level trough near the California
coast (now a closed low) begins to eject shortwaves through the
flow. This will result in a wet second half of the work-week.
The LREF keeps persistent rain chances starting Wednesday night
to early Saturday morning suggesting multiple chances for
precip. The best chances for widespread showers and storms come
Thursday when the closed low moves through the area. For now,
the LREF total forecasted rain totals 75th-25th spread ranges
from 1-2 inches across the area. Given the amount of rain over
the span of a few days, flooding concerns remain minimal at this
time. During this period, instability stays limited enough to
ward off any severe threat at this time. The best chances for
storms will come Thursday, but even then will likely remain
isolated. As far as temperatures, expect highs to be cooler with
multiple rounds of precip possible, but still a few degrees
above seasonal averages.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1137 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

MVFR ceilings will persist through the afternoon as showers and
thunderstorms move through the area. Hazards include quarter
sized hail, lightning, brief heavy downpours, and wind gusts up
to 60 mph in the strongest storms. Winds will be out of the
southeast for most of the day and generally gust up to 25 mph.
Winds turn westerly overnight before turning northwesterly by
Tuesday morning. Ceilings return to VFR after 06z tonight.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Collier
AVIATION...Soria