436
FXUS63 KEAX 042159
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
359 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Coldest temperatures of the season continue today. Relatively
  warmer temperatures expected Friday and Saturday.

- A storm system is expected to pass mainly north of the region
  Saturday night into Sunday, but looks to bring some chances
  for rain and accumulating snow across northern MO north of
  I-70 and the KC metro.

- Long term guidance shows a potential for a brief warm up
  followed by more precipitation.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 359 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

The coldest temperatures of the season are upon us with highs across
the area ranging from the upper teens to the upper 20s. The good
news is that temperatures are expected to rebound back toward
seasonal normals as low level flow reorients back out of the south.
Weak low level boundaries do perturb the atmosphere enough to keep
clouds around, but midlevel ridging and lack of substantial
moisture will keep things dry.

Saturday night`s system continues to evolve. Upper level scenarios
have been becoming a little more aligned; however, the general
structure of the perturbation has been shifting more towards a
subtle wave than the more digging wave of earlier model runs. Lower
level structures have become a little more clear with a distinct mid-
level mountain wave which looks to progress through the region.
Ensemble guidance has shifted the primary track of the system
further north which puts the axis of greatest snowfall firmly
through central IA. Accumulating snowfall expectations continue to
remain north of the I-70 corridor. Probabilistic outlooks continue
to show favorability of a trace to an inch of snow with only the far
NE portions of the CWA seeing a 20-30 percent chance of snow
exceeding one inch. While overall consensus does shift the track of
the storm northward, there are still some deterministic model
members that move the track southward. However, all guidance members
do keep the same temperature profile where areas south of I-70
remain in the warm sector with areas north of I-70 in the cold
sector.

Precipitation is expected to move into areas of far northern MO
Saturday evening. Precipitation is expected to progress ESE through
the night continuing through Sunday morning exiting by midday.
Temperatures shift to below freezing around 3AM Sunday morning. The
good news is that model vertical profiles suggest a sharp
transition from rain to snow across far northern MO. There may be a
brief bit of sleet mixed in during the transition time frame, but
accumulating ice is not expected.

An influx of cold air on the backside of the system keeps
temperatures mostly below freezing Sunday. Once again flow reverts
to southerly and lifts temperatures back up for Monday. Generally
zonal upper level flow keeps skies quiet through the early week. As
the week progresses, the axis of this zonal flow lifts northward
opening up the opportunity for warmer than normal temperatures next
Tuesday and Wednesday before another push of cold air moves into the
region late next week which could bring our next
substantial opportunity for precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1105 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

Conds look to be VFR thru the pd with just a few ocnl high
clouds. Winds should incr fm the SE/S btn 5-10kts at or shortly
after TAF issuance time and become S around 5-10kts aft 05Z.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pesel
AVIATION...73