988
FXUS63 KEAX 201730
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1130 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

...Updated 18z Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Additional chances for widespread showers and storms arrive late
Thursday into Friday. No severe anticipated. Forecasted rainfall
totals range from .5-1.5.

- Conditions trending cooler into Friday, however conditions remain
above seasonal averages.

- Precip chances (20-40%) return Monday as the next system moves
  through. Better chances remain farther south near southern MO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

The next couple of days will be mostly cloudy with multiple chances
for precip. The current synoptic pattern is defined by a flattened
mid to upper level ridge over our area with a weakening system
moving through the southwest U.S. A surface low emerging out of the
Front Range with a warm front collocated with a H700 shortwave has
provided enough lift for a few light showers this morning across the
area. Since yesterday evening into this morning, these showers have
not produced more than a few light showers/drizzles. With the
increased moisture and calm winds, widespread light fog is
anticipated this morning with pockets of dense fog possible. The
HRRR suggests the most likely areas will be near I-70 and north
(where most of the precip fell). Light showers will continue along
and north of I-70 and east of I-35 through the predawn hours with
additional rounds also south of I-70. Some light showers with a few
embedded storms have reached the southern edge of our CWA (near
Linn, Henry, and Bates counties). No severe is anticipated with
these storms, however a few lightning strikes and rumbles of thunder
are possible through the predawn hours. Hi-res models suggest
showers and storms continue to track to the east and decay. By the
late morning/early afternoon, any lingering fog or showers should be
mostly dissipated (or to the east of our area), however mid to upper
level clouds will linger through the day. Guidance solutions diverge
on cloud coverage. A few models suggest the potential for a few
breaks in cloud coverage while other keeps some low-lying stratus
through the afternoon. Either way, do not expect to see much of the
sun today. As a result, high temperatures today could be impeded.
The NBM came in a little warmer than anticipated, so decided to
coordinate with neighboring offices to cool max Ts a few degrees.
Highs are expected to range in the upper 50s to low 60s. But again,
given the extensive cloud coverage, highs could stay closer to the
lower end of that range.

Through the day, the previously-mentioned system will continue to
transit through the southwest U.S. The mid to upper level trough
then turns north/northeasterly towards our area. At the surface, the
low will have emerged out of the Front Range pushing the warm front
farther north into the area. As a result, additional, widespread
precip chances return late Thursday into Friday. A drier air mass
associated with a surface high to our north will diminish precip
chances quickly on the northern edge of the showers just to north of
our area in southern IA. No severe weather is anticipated given the
very limited instability, but a few, brief downpours are possible.
Forecasted rain totals for Friday range from around .5-1.5 with
most favorable areas north of I-70 and south of HWY-36. Even with
recent light rains, flash flood guidance (FFG) values are not
impressed and still remain high, keeping any concerns of flooding
very low. Precip chances taper off late Friday into Saturday as the
system tracks to the east of the area.

For the weekend, mid to upper level ridging remains prevalent
clearing out skies and keeping winds weak, making for comfortable
conditions. Highs remain above normal, ranging in the mid 50s to low
60s. Next chances for precip arrive Monday with another closed upper
low emerging out of the southwest U.S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1127 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Fog and low ceilings expected for at least the next hour, and
southeast of the KC metro may go later into the afternoon. This
has been difficult to track, as the spread and density of the
fog has not been uniform. Showers expected to late tonight and
through most of Friday morning. More MVFR to IFR possible with
shower activity.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for MOZ001>008-011>017-
     020>025-028>032-037-038.
KS...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for KSZ025-102>105.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Collier
AVIATION...Krull