620
FXUS63 KEAX 141058
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
558 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Light rain chances (20% to 40%) continue for areas north and
  west of I-35 today into tonight.

* Well above normal temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s
  expected Wednesday through Friday
  - At this point in the season, up to around 15-20 degrees
    above normal

* Next chance for thunderstorms arrives Friday into Friday night
  - A few strong storms cannot be ruled out at this time
    however, organized severe weather is not expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 210 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

This morning, a upper level trough is digging down the west coast
and will continue to do so today. This will allow a downstream upper
level ridge to build over the central CONUS. Today into tonight a
few weak shortwaves rounding this upper ridge will attempt to bring
a few chances (20%-40%) light showers into areas generally
delineated to north and west of I-35. However, dry air below 7-10kft
will need to be overcome. Otherwise, mostly cloudy skies over the
northern forecast area will keep highs around 70 degrees while areas
across the southern CWA where greater height rises will exist will
rise to near 80. Wednesday the upper level trough over the west
coast will begin to shift slowly eastward into the western Rockies.
This will allow the ridge to become more amplified over the central
CONUS with the ridge axis moving directly over the forecast area.
This will drive highs up into the upper 70s to mid 80s. Thursday the
upper level trough moves into the eastern Rockies forcing the upper
level ridge axis east of the forecast area however, increased WAA
will keep highs in the low to mid 80s.

By Friday, the upper level trough moves out into the northern and
central Plains states. This will force a cold front into the area
Friday afternoon. Adequate instability and sheer exist for a few
strong storms however, widespread severe weather is not expected.
With the front not reaching the area until later in the day Friday,
highs are still expected to achieve the upper 70s to mid 80s. Friday
night into Saturday the upper level trough will swing through the
region continuing shower and thunderstorm chances before the system
exits Saturday afternoon. The EC solution is slower with the exit of
the upper level system and holds showers into Saturday afternoon and
Saturday night however, the more progressive pattern highlighted
above by the GFS is preferred. Consequently, dry conditions are
expected from Saturday afternoon through early next week as
surface high pressure builds into the area behind the departing
system. Highs Saturday behind the front will fall into the low
to mid 70s and into the mid 60s to near 70 will high pressure in
control on Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 558 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

VFR conds with bkn-ovc cigs around 5-7kft are expected thru
23Z-00Z when ovc cigs around 10kft with a sct deck around 6kft
is fcst. Winds will be out lgt of E/SE at 6kts or less thru the
pd. A few lgt rain shra will be in the VC of the terminals thru
15Z however conf is too low for inclusion in the TAF and no
cig/vis restrictions are expected.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...73