143
FXUS63 KEAX 041121
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
521 AM CST Tue Nov 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmer than normal temperatures and dry conditions are expected
today. Widespread wind gusts of 20 to 30 mph will lead to slightly
elevated fire weather conditions.

- Precipitation chances (30-50%) arrive Thursday night into
  Friday mainly east of I-35.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 254 AM CST Tue Nov 4 2025

A warm, dry, and breezy day anticipated for today with a broad, mid
to upper level ridge residing in the southern U.S. A mid-level
shortwave trough continues its transit through the Great Plains over
NE. At the surface, high pressure is situated over the southeastern
corner of the U.S. and low pressure remains on the leeward side of
the Rockies. As a result of our area being wedged between these two
systems, an increased pressure gradient coupled with decent mixing
through the morning will allow wind gusts around 20-30 mph to reach
the surface across the area. Specifically for areas south of I-70
and west of Sedalia, the HREF shows sparse coverage of a 60-80%
chance for wind gusts greater than 40 mph with almost nonexistent
chances for wind gusts greater than 45 mph. This suggests there may
be occasional gusts to the low 40s (mph) for our southwestern
corner, however, winds are expected to stay below advisory-level
(frequent gusts to 45 mph). Relative humidity values drop to the low
40s to upper 30s early this afternoon creating an environment for
slightly elevated fire weather concerns. Conditions remain short of
any Red Flag criteria with a much more favorable environment well to
our southwest. Even still, any burning should still be carefully
monitored. As far as temperatures, the eastward advancement of an
anomalous H850 thermal ridge, winds shifting out of the south, and
sufficient mixing with mostly clear skies will result in highs today
reaching the low to mid 70s (which happens to be 10-15 degrees above
seasonal averages).

The surface low on the leeside of the Rockies continues its transit
to the east dragging a dry cold front through the area early
Wednesday morning. As our winds switch to a more northerly direction
(due to a high pressure descending from the northwest) on the
backside of the front, expect high temperatures to be a few degrees
cooler than today. Highs for Wednesday will range in the upper 50s
to low 70s.

Our attention then shifts to late Thursday into early Friday, when
isentropic ascent (at the 300K) out ahead of an approaching cold
front brings chances for some light showers primarily for areas east
of I-35. StormTotalQPF rain accumulations remain on the order of a
few hundredths of an inch from late Thursday into early Friday.
Going into the first half of next week, expect roller coaster
temperatures (fluctuating below and above seasonal averages) as the
pattern trends more active with passing systems.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 518 AM CST Tue Nov 4 2025

VFR conditions anticipated for the duration of the TAF period.
Winds will remain out of the south/southwest with occasional
gusts around 15-25 kts through the day. Areas south of I-70,
west of Sedalia may see a few isolated gusts to around 30 kts.
Winds will weaken this evening as we lose daytime heating.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Collier
AVIATION...Collier