115
FXUS63 KEAX 152334
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
534 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmer than average temperatures are expected this week, with
  the warmest conditions expected on Wednesday.

- Chances of precipitation (20-40%) exist late Wednesday night
  into Thursday morning. Light precipitation amounts (a tenth of
  an inch or less) are expected, with rain the anticipated
  precipitation type.

- Winds will increase considerably on Thursday after the
  precipitation moves out, with at least a 50% chance of wind
  gusts greater than 30 mph and at least a 30% chance of wind
  gusts greater than 45 mph Thursday afternoon in much of the
  area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 146 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

The large-scale pattern has been extremely stable (long-lasting)
across North America, with a persistent ridge in the eastern
Pacific into the Southwest and northwest flow downstream in
much of the central/eastern U.S. for the past several weeks.
This will continue through much of this week as well, with the
only discernible trend being a slow broadening of subtropical
ridging into more of the southern U.S. by early next week. As a
result, this cold season`s theme of occasional intrusions of
relatively cold and dry air will only be curtailed by the
increased southern-stream ridging and attendant warmth. So
rather than cold and mainly dry conditions for our area, we
will instead transition to warm (relative to climatology) and
mostly dry.

This warming trend has already commenced across the area, with
temperatures well into the 40s early this afternoon. This will
continue through mid week, with highs breaching the 50-degree
mark tomorrow and nearing 60 in our southern forecast area on
Wednesday. With a surface ridge moving across the central Plains
Tuesday night, would not be completely surprised to see some
low stratus or fog develop early Wednesday morning, though
models are currently not strongly indicative of this. Otherwise,
breezier southwest winds should develop Wednesday, leading to a
particularly pleasant/mild day.

With the persistent northwest flow across the central U.S.,
occasional perturbations have progressed in this flow from the
northern Rockies southeastward into the Midwest for several
weeks now. A particularly strong one will be moving through the
Northwest Tuesday night and Wednesday, rapidly digging
southeastward into the Midwest by Thursday. Models have trended
stronger with the large-scale lift in advance of a surging cold
front moving through the northern/central Plains Wednesday night
and Thursday, producing light precipitation (rain, given the
warm temperatures advecting northward in advance of the front)
in the mid-Missouri Valley in the 06z-18z window Thursday.
There are event some hints at marginal instability developing
during this period, so it is not impossible that a rumble of
thunder occurs Thursday morning. Unfortunately, there will not
be a lot of time or moisture to work with, leaving QPF on the
underwhelming side (around a tenth of an inch or less) for this
system.

On the other hand, isallobaric forcing on the cold side of the
system will lead to a period of strong winds across the area
Thursday afternoon and evening. Ensemble guidance shows fairly
high probabilities this far in advance of 30-mph (40-60%) and
45-mph (20-40%) gusts in much of the area. Pattern recognition
and previous experience with ensemble probabilities this high
this far in advance suggest that wind-advisory criteria will
probably be met (forecaster-adjusted probabilities greater than
60%) in much of the area (especially north of U.S. Highway 36)
during this period. However, as mentioned previously, this
system will be fast-moving, so the strong winds should be
relatively short-lived, with quieter and calmer conditions
expected on Friday. Given the more Pacific origins of this
system, the cold air it brings in will be milder than what we
saw this past weekend, with temperatures expected to remain near
or above average to close the week.

With ridging continuing to build this weekend (albeit slowly),
temperatures should warm back into the 50s by Saturday. Models
are hinting at a weak system moving into the region late in the
weekend, but model variability is high by this point. Confidence
is low with the temperature/precipitation forecast Sunday into
early next week at this stage.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 527 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

Southwesterly winds decrease to <10 kts overnight, with VFR
ceilings/visibility through the period. Low stratus is expected
to creep into southeast KS and central MO overnight, but stay
south of TAF sites, which only see some scattered high cloud
debris.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CMS
AVIATION...Camden