996
FXUS66 KEKA 192102
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
102 PM PST Wed Nov 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...A quick moving front will bring moderate rainfall and
breezy winds this afternoon into Thursday. Drier and cooler weather
with a chance for freezing morning temperatures in the interior
can be expected toward the end of the week and weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...An approaching frontal system will increase rain
chances throughout the day as southerly winds increase ahead of
the front. Wind gusts will reach 20 to 30 mph, with some gusts
over 40 mph for coastal Del Norte, the King Range, and the
prominent coastal headlands and interior ridges. These stronger
winds will be shorter lived and mainly with the frontal passage
Wednesday night. NBM is generally showing low chances for gusts
over 30 mph, so there is still some question of the magnitude of
winds that mix down to the surface.

A burst of widespread moderate to locally heavy rainfall (up to
0.3 inches per hour) is expected with this front. There is a
moderate probability (40 to 60%) for 24 hour rainfall over 0.75
inch from Southern Humboldt to Del Norte. The rain shadow from
downsloping southeast winds will lower amounts for locations such
as around Humboldt Bay. There is better chances and higher
confidence for rain amounts over 0.5 inch.

Snow levels will drop Wednesday night to 5000-5500 ft, but lower
precipitation potential in Trinity County will only support a
dusting at Highway 3 around Scott Mountain Pass. Conditions
quickly improve by Thursday morning with only some lingering
showers continuing by Thursday afternoon.

Another break in the wet weather returns Friday and into the
weekend as high pressure noses in from the west. Daytime high will
rebound back to warm values Friday and through the weekend for
most of the region. Chilly overnight temperatures are likely,
which could lead to widespread frost as early as Friday morning if
cloud cover clears out. Interior valley fog would lower chances
for colder temperatures however. An additional system is possible
early next week, but ensembles are starting to trend this system
northward. Even high- end precipitation amounts (75th percentile)
are only showing 0.25 amounts clipping Del Norte County.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS)...Chance for low level wind shear and
severe shallow turbulence will increase this evening over Del
Norte and Humboldt Counties. Surface winds may initially be
too gusty for a sharp drop off in wind speed from 1000-2000 AGL.
Max threat will be around 04z to 07z Thu with frontal boundary
passage. VFR to MVFR ceilings will likely deteriorate with
occasional IFR or 2SM in moderate to locally heavy rain from about
03z to 07z Thu for ACV and CEC. Precip intensity falls off after
07z with generally MVFR conditions. Light rain should also spread
over KUKI by 04-05z and MVFR conditions are generally expected.
Mixing and cloud cover should limit the risk for IFR due to fog.
HREF does show light rain ending after 10-12Z and with light or
calm winds. Cloud cover will probably be too extensive for dense
fog around daybreak in the valleys.

&&

.MARINE...Southerly winds are projected to strengthen ahead of an
incoming front that will move through the coastal waters late
this afternoon into this evening. Un-calibrated HREF continues to
indicate 80-100% chances for gusts > 34 kt late today into this
evening, primarily north of Cape Mendo. Individual CAMS show a
wide range of possible outcomes across time and space. Wind gusts
over 40 kt from the W-NW with mini occlusions along the front
could also develop by mid to late evening or shortly after
midnight, Both north and south of Cape Mendo. Even the inner
waters could have gust > 34 kt from about Trinidad Head to the
Oregon border around Pt St George this evening. Winds at KCEC are
already above model guidance, but the flow remains stable and
laminar with no gusts. Instability and mixing will increase this
evening as a 925mb speed max around 35 kt develops near and along
the front. If deeper convection or elevated thunderstorms develop,
wind gusts to 40 kt may even occur. A marine weather statement
has been issued for this. On Thu, a large W-NW swell will begin to
build and reach 15-17 feet at 13-15 seconds Thu afternoon and
evening. This swell may combine with short period wind waves and
seas will once again become quite hazardous. A warning for seas
may be necessary. At this time, the wind waves appear to dwindle
and the swell looks to be the dominant energy. For the remainder
of the week, northerly winds and steep wind waves are generally
forecast to prevail. Wind gusts to 35 kt or more are certainly
possible downwind of Cape Mendo. Another large W-NW swell group
will propagate into the waters this weekend and may pose a threat
for sneaker waves once the shorter period wave groups subside.

&&

.BEACH HAZARDS...A large W-NW swell will bring a risk for dangerous
surf Thursday afternoon through Friday morning. Breakers from 16
to 20 feet are expected assuming an ideal and average beach profile.
Larger breakers will be possible if the swell ends up coming bigger
than forecast by GFSwaves. For now will call attention to this
risk via weather story post and on social media. The swell is too
large for sneaker wave criteria and too low to warrant a high surf
advisory. A longer period W-NW swell group from 8-12 ft with dominant
periods near 16 seconds is forecast to build over the weekend. This
swell may pose a greater risk for sneaker waves and continued erosion
of beach profiles. Stay tuned.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
None.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 PM PST
     this evening for PZZ450-475.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for
     PZZ470.

&&

$$

NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between
10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed.

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For forecast zone information
see the forecast zone map online:
https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png