Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Eureka, CA
Issued by NWS Eureka, CA
553 FXUS66 KEKA 090826 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 1226 AM PST Sun Nov 9 2025 .SYNOPSIS...Warmer and drier conditions will build and persist through Tuesday with night and morning valley and coastal fog. Wet and unsettled weather conditions will impact the area mid to late next week, bringing heavy rainfall, mountain snow and multiple periods of strong south winds. && .DISCUSSION...High pressure is expected to persist on Sunday. Valley fog is forecast for most of the inland valleys with some patchy fog along coastal areas. By Monday, a weather system could move by to the north of the area. At this point, it looks like this will only have very subtle affects on northern CA, slightly cooler temperatures and possibly some more coastal stratus. Tuesday this moves east, but a stronger trough starts to approach the area. Conditions will generally be similar on Tuesday, but the winds may start to turn southerly and high clouds might start to move in. Valley fog is expected each morning, although coverage might be slightly less each day as it dries out. Wednesday, a frontal boundary ahead of the next upper level is expected to approach the area bringing rain and strong winds. Current models are showing the rain starting on the south slopes as early as late morning with most areas holding off until mid to late afternoon. Moderate to heavy rain is expected across the area Wednesday night into Thursday morning. This looks like a strong system that will bring fairly heavy rain, but overall it doesn`t look as strong as the system that we saw the middle of this past week. Integrated Vapor Transport (IVT) values are still expected to be fairly high with a 50 to 60 percent probability of them exceeding 500 j/kg/s. The models are generally showing 1 to 3 inches of rain with local amounts up to 5 inches in the mountains late Wednesday evening through Thursday morning. This may cause some flooding in small stream and urban areas, but is generally not expected to bring river flooding. Strong winds are also expected with this storm. Snow levels are expected to be high with the first round, likely over 7,000 feet. Thursday night and Friday additional rain and mountain snow are expected. Snow levels are expected to fall slightly behind the front. Current models are showing them fall to around 4000 to 5000 feet, with the lowest snow levels for Northwest California around the Klamath Mountains. Thursday night into Friday the colder air starts to move into the area. This brings the potential for lower snow levels, however it is uncertain how quickly the precip will come to an end. There is the potential for snow as low as 4,000 feet, but this is highly uncertain at this point. The models have started to trend lower with the snow levels. MKK && .AVIATION...(6Z TAFs)...VFR conditions are being observed at the terminals late this evening. Offshore flow is likely to keep widespread coastal stratus from forming. Patchy ground fog is still possible, bringing LIFR conditions. NBM shows 30-40% chances at CEC and ACV to see LIFR ceilings and visibilities overnight, with the highest chances around sunrise. Interior valleys are more sheltered from the offshore flow and Weaverville is already observing fog. UKI could see fog again before and around sunrise. Any ceilings are likely to lift and scatter shortly after sunrise, and VFR conditions are likely to return by the afternoon. Light winds are forecast for the next 24 hours. JB && .MARINE...Mild conditions continue for the rest of the weekend. Seas remain dominated by a decaying northwest swell around 5-7 ft. Northerly winds return Monday afternoon and evening, with sustained winds approaching 20 kts in the southern outer waters. NBM probabilities for gusts over 25 kts are around 30%. Short period seas of 4-6 ft are likely to build back by Tuesday morning. This will be combined with a mid-period westerly swell at around 6-7 ft building in Monday, bringing combined seas of 8-10 ft. Winds and seas ease Tuesday as the pressure gradient weakens and an area of low pressure approaches the area. The system arrives by Wednesday or Thursday and brings the chance (around 50%) for gale force southerlies. JB && .COASTAL FLOODING...Tides will continue to decrease over the next few days with no notable coastal impacts expected. The next King Tide will return the first week of December. /JHW && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... None. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... None. && $$ NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between 10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed. Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png