687
FXUS66 KEKA 261322 CCA
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Eureka CA
522 AM PST Wed Nov 26 2025

Corrected to add Synopsis.

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure will promote mild and dry weather today,
with temperatures warming into the upper 60s across interior
valleys. A weakening cold front is expected to bring increased
cloudiness and chances for light rain primarily to Del Norte and
northern Humboldt counties on Thanksgiving Day. A cooling trend
follows for the weekend with dry conditions and a return of
widespread interior freezing temperatures. Additionally, a
building swell is expected to bring hazardous surf conditions by
late Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Ridging will continue to build and strengthen over the
area today, promoting mild weather conditions with a drying and
warming trend. Dry offshore flow, especially at night, will scour
out some of the low-level clouds near the coast, which should lead
to more afternoon sunshine and nighttime conditions capable of
producing frost. High temperatures are forecast with highs in the
upper 60s in the warmest interior valleys. Any areas that do have
fog development overnight will likely be slow to clear and may
have high temperatures that are lower, leading to lower than usual
forecast confidence.

A subtle shift in the weather pattern is expected for tonight and
Thursday (Thanksgiving Day). High pressure begins to shift
eastward as a shortwave trough and its associated surface low move
toward the PacNW. A weakening cold front crossing the area will
bring light rain and sprinkles for Thanksgiving Day, for Del Norte
and Northern Humboldt counties, with most rainfall totals under a
tenth of an inch and a vast majority of models suggesting under
0.20" over 24 hours. Elsewhere, increasing cloudiness with mostly
dry conditions are expected.

Looking ahead for Friday and through the weekend, the general
consensus between ensemble and deterministic models shows an upper-
level trough dropping southward while an upper level ridge builds in
the Gulf of Alaska. There is, however, high uncertainty in the
position of this upper-level trough, with models showing variable
solutions, especially over the weekend. The ECMWF, GFS ensemble
means and clusters show similar solutions with the upper trough
dropping south over land and becoming positively tilted.
This solution typically leads to dry and colder weather, leading to
additional inland freezing temperatures this weekend. Only ~20% of
the cluster mean are showing widespread precipitation, while the
~80% suggest dry weather conditions.


&&

.AVIATION...(06z TAFs)...VFR conditions prevail at all terminal
forecast (TAFs), with high clouds streaming across the area and
light offshore flow. Short-term model guidance suggests LIFR
visibility and ceiling redeveloping again late tonight at UKI. There
is a low potential (10% chance) for shallow fog redeveloping again
at UKI after 10Z, with clear to partly cloudy skies late tonight. A
shallow marine layer return along the coast this evening and tonight
as a cold front approaches, resulting in MVFR/IFR ceilings at the
coastal terminals. /ZVS


&&

.MARINE...Relatively calm conditions with light to gentle breezes
and seas up to 5 feet. Wind shift to southerly north of Cape
Mendocino this afternoon as a weak frontal boundary approaches.
Southerly winds increasing to around 10 to 15 kt across the northern
outer waters late tonight into Thursday. Northerly winds redeveloped
Thursday afternoon in the wake of the front, before strengthen on
Friday. Models suggests the strongest winds south of Cape Mendocino,
with gusts up to 25 kts. For the weekend, northerly winds expanded
northward with gusts up to around 30 kts across the outer waters on
Sunday.

A forerunner mid-period WNW swell around 8 to 12 feet at 12 seconds
build in on Thursday. The swell is expected to arrive late Friday
night. This look to be around 5 to 8 feet at 14 seconds. Wind waves
around 7 to 10 feet at 8 seconds expected on Sunday. /ZVS


&&

.BEACH HAZARDS...A larger NW swell will move through the
waters Sunday evening through Monday, resulting in building surf
along the beaches and increasing the potential of sneaker waves.
Breaking waves will increase rapidly Sunday evening, reaching as
14 to 19 feet by Sunday evening along the northwest facing
beaches. Sneaker waves are a unique hazard, with many minutes
between waves. Pay attention and stay above the high water line
and any wet sand to stay safe. If the ground is wet, waves have
surged there recently. Stay safe and never turn your back on the
ocean! A potentially larger swell is then forecast to move in late
Sunday through Monday./ZVS


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
     Frost Advisory until 9 AM PST this morning for CAZ103-
     106>108-110-111-113-115.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
None.
&&

$$

NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between
10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed.

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