157
FXUS66 KEKA 100843
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
1243 AM PST Mon Nov 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Above normal temperatures and dry conditions will
persist through Tuesday with overnight valley and coastal fog. Wet
and unsettled weather conditions will impact the area starting mid
to late in the day on Wednesday. This will bring heavy rain and wind
Wednesday night. Thursday, snow levels are expected to drop as
low as 4,000 feet with potential additional precipitation.

&&

.DISCUSSION...High pressure continues for northwestern California
with a weather system moving by to the north of the area on Monday.
This system will have very subtle affects on northern California
such as: slightly cooler temperatures and some coastal stratus.
Tuesday, this system moves east with a stronger trough approaching
the area by mid week. For early this week, afternoon highs will
still be above normal, but muted by overnight valley cloud cover.
Inland valley fog with afternoon clearing is expected to continue
for both Monday and Tuesday mornings. Slightly less coverage for low
clouds will be expected each day as it dries out. Along with the
potential lack of low clouds in inland valleys, there is a very
slight chance for some frost in the colder valleys Monday and
Tuesday mornings. However, this does not look very likely. High
clouds will begin to stream over the area Tuesday with winds
beginning to turn southerly by Tuesday evening.

Tuesday night into Wednesday, the next weather system starts
approaching the area. South to southeast winds are expected to begin
increasing very early Wednesday morning, which may help diminish fog
and low clouds. Current models show the rain starting after 18Z
(10AM) Wednesday for most areas. More than likely it will start
closer to early or mid afternoon. A period of moderate to heavy rain
is expected from Wednesday evening through Thursday morning. One to
three inches of rain is expected early Thursday morning. Integrated
Vapor Transport (IVT) values remain fairly strong, there is still a
50 to 60 percent chance of exceeding 500 kg/m/s. This may be enough
to generate some flooding of poor drainage and low lying areas, but
not much else beyond that. Once again, the rivers are not expected
to see much of a rise with this system.

Strong winds are expected with this system, the GFS has a low
level jet at 925 mb around 40 to 50 kt off the coast. There is
some ensemble support for this, but the clusters show fairly big
discrepancies making confidence low on the winds. Gusts of 40 to
50 mph are expected in wind prone areas. Local gusts as high as
60 mph could occur, especially around the Cape Mendocino
headlands.

Thursday afternoon and into the evening, the upper level trough
is expected to move overhead bringing showers to the area and
lower snow levels. Rainfall amounts are expected to be lighter
with these showers, although a few on the North Coast could
produce locally heavy rain. This colder storm will bring the
potential for lower snow levels. Currently the models show them
dropping to around 4,000 feet and possibly a bit lower. Currently
this is expected to be above the main highway passes except for
Hwy 3 at Scott Mountain summit which could see several inches of
snow. This will likely bring snow to many of the higher elevation
areas including Horse mountain in Humboldt county.

Friday, snow levels are expected to start to rise as high
pressure starts to build in. There may be some light rain or snow
produced by overrunning as this builds into the area. Generally
drier weather is expected on Saturday before another system starts
to move into the area on Sunday. /MKK /JLW


&&

.AVIATION...(6Z TAFs)...Aside from a few high clouds streaming
across the area, mostly clear skies are being observed. Shallow
patchy ground fog is likely again early Monday morning around
Humboldt Bay and in the interior valleys. Models are showing
higher confidence for a shallow marine layer to return to CEC,
with the highest chances between 11Z and 17Z. This may also impact
ACV, but confidence is lower. Any ceilings are likely to lift and
scatter after 17Z, with VFR conditions likely by the afternoon.
Models are hinting at the return of stratus in the evening, but
confidence is low. JB


&&

.MARINE...Northerly winds winds increase today, especially in the
outer waters south of Cape Mendocino where gusts of 20-25 kts are
possible by the afternoon. Winds are forecast to be lighter
elsewhere until the evening. A mid-period west swell has filled in
and is forecast to peak around 7-8 ft. These will combine with short
period seas in the southern waters. North winds spread northward
tonight into Tuesday, with gusts of 20 kts possible across the outer
waters. These will ease by Tuesday afternoon as high pressure moves
eastward. A system approaches the waters Wednesday, likely returning
gale force southerlies by Wednesday afternoon. Steep short period
seas and a larger long-period west swell will keep seas elevated
for the rest of the work week. JB


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
None.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Monday to 10 AM PST Tuesday
     for PZZ475.

&&

$$

NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between
10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed.

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For forecast zone information
see the forecast zone map online:
https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png