562
FXUS66 KEKA 111320
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
515 AM PDT Tue Jun 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Dry and hot weather will continue in the interior
through mid week. Locally strong northerly winds are expected
over exposed coastal mountains and headlands today and Wednesday.
Temperatures are forecast to trend down during the latter portion
of the week, followed by more substantial cooling over the
weekend as gusty northwesterly winds strengthen in the interior.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Dry weather will persist through the end of the
week and most likely into the weekend. Well above normal
temperatures (upper 90s to 103F) are forecast today for Lake,
Trinity and interior Mendocino counties. Heat advisory remains in
effect for southern Lake county where localized major heat risk
is anticipated. Those without effective cooling and/or adequate
hydration will be at the greatest risk. Low to moderate heat risk
is expected elsewhere in the interior. It probably will not be
quite as hot for much of interior Humboldt and Del Norte counties
where temperatures are projected to peak in the mid 80s to around
90F today. Temperatures are forecast to remain about the same on
Wednesday, give or take a few degrees.

Also, a tighter pressure gradient is expected to develop along
the coast today and Wednesday. This will promote breezy north to
northwesterly winds each afternoon with gusts from 20 to 30 mph,
locally higher gusts to 35-45 mph over the King Range and headlands.
Locally strong and gusty northerlies will likely continue on Thu.

Upstream trough in westerly flow aloft will edge toward the West
Coast Thu through Fri. National Blend of Models (NBM) remains
consistent with temperatures trending down, but still above
mid June normals especially on Thu.

NBM indicates more substantial cooling over the weekend as another
500mb trough dips down from the NW. This trough is forecast to be
relatively dry and right now the potential for any precipitation is
quite meager, 5-10% chance for mostly Del Norte by late in the
weekend. The trough will most likely result in deeper mixing and
much stronger westerly to northwesterly winds across the interior.
There is even a chance (30-50%) for morning frost in the colder
valleys of Trinity and eastern Humboldt counties by Sunday. Also.
rain possibilities increase early to mid next week (June 17-19),
though still quite meager with NBM probabilities for 0.10in or more
in 24 hours no more than 20% for mostly Del Norte and northern
Humboldt counties. DB/ZVS

&&

.AVIATION...Stratus has returned to the coastal terminals early this
morning, but has already begun to erode. VFR conditions are expected
once completely eroded likely shortly after sunrise. Gusty north-
northwest winds are forecast to pick up this afternoon at the
coastal terminals, with peak gusts approaching 30 kts at CEC and 20
kts at ACV. Stratus is likely to make a return again tonight,
especially around Humboldt Bay. It is possible southerly winds will
advect stratus over to CEC, but that remains uncertain as strong
northerly winds continue into the night just offshore. Conditions at
UKI will remain VFR through the day, with some afternoon breezes
forecast. JB

&&

.MARINE...Northerly winds continue to be elevated in the outer
waters and south of Cape Mendocino early this morning. Gale force
wind gusts will ramp up today, starting south of Cape Mendocino then
expanding to the northern outer waters by the evening. Seas will
respond by generating ever heightening wind waves of up to 15 feet
Wednesday. A series of relatively minor NW mid-period swells will
also fill in through the end of the week, generating a more chaotic
sea state. Gale to near-gale force gusts look likely to persist into
early Friday. Seas will ease, as well, Friday below 10 feet north of
Cape Mendocino. JB

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
     Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM PDT this
     evening for CAZ115.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 9 AM PDT
     Thursday for PZZ450.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for
     PZZ455.

     Gale Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT Wednesday
     for PZZ455.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for PZZ470.

     Gale Warning from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM PDT Thursday
     for PZZ470.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT this morning for PZZ475.

     Gale Warning from 9 AM this morning to 9 AM PDT Thursday
     for PZZ475.

&&

$$

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