202
FXUS66 KEKA 172004
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
1204 PM PST Mon Nov 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Rain showers will gradually taper off today and breezy
winds will ease overnight. Frost will be possible Wednesday morning
for the interior. Additional rain is possible late Wednesday into
Thursday.


&&

.DISCUSSION...The worst of our wet and windy day is over as the area
of low pressure slowly moves to the south toward the Bay Area.
Observations show generally 1-3 inches of rain fell in the past 24
hours, with some isolated mountain spots that received higher
amounts. Strong northerly winds have filled in behind the low, with
observed peak gusts generally between 30 and 40 mph along the
Humboldt and Del Norte coasts. Winds are forecast to gradually ease
this afternoon and evening for most areas. The one exception is
around Lake County, where easterly winds start to ramp up in the
evening. Wind gusts of 20-30 mph are possible, with locally higher
gusts possible over higher terrain.

A brief period of dry weather is forecast Tuesday and most of
Wednesday as a much drier airmass fills in behind this system
tonight, bringing chillier temperatures to the interior areas.
Widespread rains are likely to bring valley fog tonight, which may
keep temperatures just high enough to prevent frost. Generally mid
to high 30s are forecast for the valleys of Trinity and northern
Mendocino. A dry, but cooler day is forecast for much of the area
Tuesday into Wednesday. Overnight low temperatures are forecast to
be chilly again Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. There is still
uncertainty on if frost will develop as ample moisture will likely
still be available and could lead to areas of patchy valley fog and
keep temperatures high enough to prevent frost. Additionally, an
approaching system could bring in high clouds, further lowering
confidence. NBM does show high (>50%) probabilities for temperatures
less than 36F in Trinity, areas of Lake, northern Mendocino, and
even areas along the Humboldt coast; but for the above reasons,
confidence is low.

Another system is likely arriving by Wednesday evening or Wednesday
night, returning gusty south winds and rain to the area. So far,
most ensembles show this as a quick moving system with a punch of
moderate to locally heavy rain and breezy south winds. NBM is
showing around a 20-40% chance for over 1 inch of rain north of Cape
Mendocino, with higher probabilities in the higher terrain of the
King Range and Del Norte. Generally, forecast amounts range from
0.50-1.25 inches across the area, with localized areas over 2
inches. South winds are not currently forecast to be strong, though
gusts of 20-30 mph are possible especially along the coastal areas
and in channeled terrain. Snow levels will drop Wednesday night to
5000-5500 ft, but lower precipitation potential in Trinity County
will only support 1-2 inches at Highway 3 around Scott Mountain Pass.

Another break in the wet weather returns Friday into the weekend.
Chilly overnight temperatures are likely, which could lead to frost
as early as Friday morning if cloud cover clears out. An additional
system is possible early next week. JB


&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS. A low pressure center over sonoma Co. is
funneling northerlies and scattered showers over the area. VFR to
MVFR categories are expected through the day. Faster winds aloft
could create turbulence near coastal terminals this morning at about
2kft AGL. Coastal northerlies will continue through the TAF period
with variable light winds inland. Inland valleys should expect fog
with ceilings in LIFR/IFR categories forming overnight through the
morning tomorrow.


&&

.MARINE...Gale conditions developed in all zones into tonight.
The potential for thunderstorms is mainly the southern waters around
Cape Mendocino and southward. Gale force northerlies will ease to
subgale breezes and remain through Tuesday before calming and
switching to southerlies by Wednesday. A building long period
northwest swell will combine with the steep northerly short period
seas to create significant waves height upwards of 17 ft and
hazardous seas. Wednesday another  storm system enter the waters
with forecast confidence increasing on the likelihood of gale force
winds for Wednesday night.


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
None.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     Gale Warning until 3 PM PST this afternoon for PZZ450.

     Hazardous Seas Warning until 10 PM PST this evening for
     PZZ450.

     Gale Warning until 6 PM PST this evening for PZZ455.

     Gale Warning until 11 PM PST this evening for PZZ470-475.

&&

$$

NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between
10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed.

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For forecast zone information
see the forecast zone map online:
https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png