223
FXUS66 KEKA 052016
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
116 PM PDT Sun Oct 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Dry and warmer weather is forecast for the next
several days as a ridge of high pressure builds over the West
Coast. The next chance for rain may be late next week as another
trough approaches the region.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
An upper level shortwave is currently moving south along the Pacific
Northwest coast and will move over our region Sunday. This shortwave
will bring some high clouds to the region but otherwise the main
impact of its passage will be to enhance offshore flow and drying at
the surface. Coastal clouds tonight will quickly be scoured out
leaving what should be clear conditions Sunday night through
Tuesday. Warming aloft as ridging builds behind the shortwave
passage and offshore flow will result in above normal high
temperatures for much of the region Monday through Tuesday. Some
coastal areas could see highs reaching into the lower 70s, if not a
little warmer in some locations. Interior areas will reach into the
80s and could push 90 degrees in a few of the typically hotter
locations. None of these temperatures are anywhere close to
record highs for the time of year but it will still feel very warm
after the recently cool period.

The next weather challenge is the potential for an upper low to cut-
off from the flow off the Northwest California coast. Guidance
continues to remain split with a little more than 60% of the
ensembles favoring this solution while a little less than 40%
indicate the low may move straight down the coast instead of
retrograding toward the west or will not become a close low at all
and remain a trough. Regardless, there will be a potential for rain
starting late in the week and into the weekend with a SREF model
data hinting at a slight potential for thunderstorms over the
coastal waters/nothern CWA, especially if the colder closed-off
low solutions win out and the upper low eventually moves over the
region. /RPA


&&

.AVIATION...Key Points:

-Northeast wind aloft of 30 to 40 kts will create dangerous low
level wind shear 02Z-06Z Monday

-VFR conditions to prevail through this 24 hour 18Z period

18Z TAFs...The stratus came in shallow over the Humboldt
Bay through Sunday morning, but quickly cleared out. VFR VIS and
CIGs will remain firmly in place over this 24 hour period from
increasing dry offshore winds. HRRR hints at some localized terrain
enhanced stratus near Humboldt Bay Monday morning, but the thinking
is that will be unlikely due to the significant drying expected from
the offshore winds. There is some lingering coastal stratus around
and south of the Fort Bragg region, but this will likely stay over
the ocean for the most part.

The main issue will be strong northeast winds aloft overnight
through Monday morning. These winds will be 30 to 40 kts from the
northeast to east from 1500 to 2500 ft AGL. Lower level surface
winds apart form the ridges will be light form the north or
variable, with up to a 60 degree difference in direction. The threat
will be from 02Z to 6Z Monday. The main TAF terminal under this
threat will be at CEC.

JJW


&&

.MARINE...Northerly winds peaked early Sunday morning. Gale
conditions have ended for the most part. As the northerlies continue
downward today, some gale strength gusts and 10 ft short period seas
may be found in the far corners of the northern waters out 50 to 60
nm through this Sunday afternoon. The majority of the zones will
continue to see 6-9 ft short period seas overnight and through
Monday morning. Inland easterly winds will strengthen overnight
through Monday morning. These breezy easterly winds will spill out
into the nearshore waters, and terrain channeled areas will see up
to 25kt gusts through Monday morning in localized areas. Winds and
seas will then drop considerably throughout the day Monday.
Northerly winds will then begin trending stronger Tuesday night
through Wednesday. There is currently a low to moderate chance (up
to 40%) for wind gusts over 30kt for the outer waters on Wednesday.

JJW


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
None.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for
     PZZ450.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Monday for PZZ470-475.

&&

$$

NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between
10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed.

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For forecast zone information
see the forecast zone map online:
https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png