202
FXUS66 KEKA 112121
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
121 PM PST Tue Nov 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Tonight patchy fog and low clouds are expected again.
Wednesday a strong front is bringing rain and strong winds
Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning. Showers and possibly
a thunderstorm are expected Thursday with drier weather expected
Friday and Saturday. The next system is expected Sunday and
Monday.

&&

KEY MESSAGES:

 - Rain begins late Wednesday and tapers off Thursday morning.
   Locally heavy rain is expected late in the evening and
   overnight.

 - Strong winds Wednesday afternoon and overnight. Wind gusts of 40
   to 50 mph with locally higher gusts at wind prone ridges and
   coastal headlands.

 - Potential for thunderstorms through the day Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Water vapor satellite shows three weather features
in the eastern Pacific this afternoon. The first of these is a
frontal boundary that is bringing high clouds to the area
currently and that will be about it. Second, a strong compact low
pressure associated with the current front remains well behind
it. Tonight the third feature, an upper level trough and
associated frontal boundary drops south and absorbs the compact
area of low pressure. Wednesday this trough continues to approach
the area and starts to become a cutoff low. Initially the surface
low is well out in front of the upper level low. The surface low
is expected to rapidly deepen as it it approaches the coast. This
is expected start increasing southerly winds through the day on
Wednesday. The GFS is showing 925MB winds of 75 kt just off the
Del Norte coast. The models show the strongest winds generally
remaining near or just off the coast, but still some stronger
winds are expected to make it onshore mainly to the ridges and
exposed coastal areas. Have issued a wind advisory to highlight
wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph over the higher terrain of Del Norte,
Humboldt, Mendocino and Lake counties. At this point it doesn`t
look like enough will mix down to the low elevation coastal areas
so have kept the wind advisory confined to the higher elevations.

As the front moves onshore Wednesday evening rain is expected to
start first in the King Range and Mendocino county. This will
quickly move north with the front moving through and quickly
dropping 1 to 2 inches with local amounts over 3 inches in the
higher terrain. Overall the axis of heaviest rain has shifted
south and the focus is more on Mendocino county and the King
Range. With the changes in position of this system it is also
warmer. Snow levels have risen and it looks like most snow will
stay above 5,000 feet. This may keep most of the snow above the
main highways, even Scott Mt Summit. A warmer system will also
limit the potential for small hail and thunderstorms. There may
still be a rumble of thunder or two, but have kept small hail out
of the forecast.

Late Wednesday night as the front is moving onshore the models
show the low pressure that was rapidly approaching the coast stall
out, still to fill and circle back to the west. At this point the
area of low pressure becomes more vertically stacked and continues
to weak. This becomes nearly stationary off the coast in the GFS
through the day Thursday. How strong the southerly winds are and
how heavy the showers are will be highly defendant on how close
stays.

Drier weather is expected Friday and Saturday as the upper low
drops away from the area and high pressure briefly builds into
the area. There is a small chance for frost during this time, but
with the recent rainfall the valleys and coastal areas will likely
fog up before it can frost.

Sunday and into Monday another weather system is expected to
approach the area and become a cutoff low. There is still a lot of
uncertainty on this system, but it looks like it will be weaker
than the previous system. MKK

&&

.AVIATION...Stratus and fog have returned to the coastal
terminals and is stubborn on burning off today. LIFR conditions
with low visibilities are being observed at KACV with guidance
showing a high likelihood of MVFR and even VFR conditions
developing this afternoon as ceilings and fog scatter, but there
is a 30% chance for at least IFR ceilings to persist through the
day. Regardless, confidence is high on the return of stratus this
evening, but the marine layer is likely to deepen, bringing MVFR
to IFR impacts. Outside some of the river valleys, most inland
areas are forecast to remain VFR for the next 24 hours. There is
possibility for KUKI to receive stratus tonight into early
Wednesday as an upper level trough enters the area deepening the
marine layer.

&&

.MARINE...A brief period of mild conditions are expected today as
north winds weaken and a mid-period swell and residual steep wind
waves begin to decay. An approaching system will turn winds
southerly starting Wednesday morning. These will gradually build
Wednesday and peak Wednesday night. Gale force winds are expected
and confidence in storm force gusts in the outer waters is
increasing as more model data becomes available. In addition to
hazardous winds, steep wind waves over 10 ft are expected
Wednesday night through Thursday.

Winds ease behind the front and turn southwesterly. As the surface
low moves to the north of the area, south winds may briefly pulse
upward again Thursday, with lower (30%) chances for gale force gusts
if the low moves southward. Otherwise, gusts of 30-35 kts are
possible, especially in the northern waters. Seas will remain
elevated as steep wind waves combine with a large long-period NW
swell of 13-15 ft filling in Thursday and Friday. There is growing
confidence on another storm arriving late this coming weekend into
early next week.


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
     Wind Advisory from 4 PM Wednesday to 1 AM PST Thursday for
     CAZ102.

     Wind Advisory from 1 PM Wednesday to 1 AM PST Thursday for
     CAZ104>106.

     Wind Advisory from 7 PM Wednesday to 1 AM PST Thursday for
     CAZ110-111-113.

     Wind Advisory from 10 PM Wednesday to 4 AM PST Thursday for
     CAZ114-115.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     Gale Warning from 3 PM Wednesday to 1 AM PST Thursday for
     PZZ415-450.

     Gale Warning from 3 PM Wednesday to 3 AM PST Thursday for
     PZZ455.

     Gale Warning from 6 AM to 7 PM PST Wednesday for PZZ470.

     Storm Watch from Wednesday evening through late Wednesday
     night for PZZ470-475.

     Gale Warning from 8 AM to 7 PM PST Wednesday for PZZ475.

&&

$$

NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between
10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed.

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For forecast zone information
see the forecast zone map online:
https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png