548
AXPZ20 KNHC 070949
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Tue Oct 7 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Priscilla is centered near 19.4N 109.5W at 07/0900
UTC, moving northwest at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 967 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 85 kt with
gusts to 105 kt. Peak seas are near 41 ft. Abundant convection
is noted within 150 nm of the center. On the forecast track, the
center of Priscilla is expected to move parallel to, but offshore
of, the coast of west-central Mexico and Baja California Sur
during the next couple of days. Swells generated by Priscilla are
affecting portions of the coast of southwestern and west-central
Mexico, as well as portions of the coast of the southern Baja
California peninsula. These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office for more details.

Tropical Storm Octave is centered near 15.8N 119.5W at 07/0900
UTC, moving east-southeast at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 998 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with
gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are near 15 ft. Modest convection
coverage has increased overnight, now within 150 nm of the
center. A steady weakening trend is expected to continue through
midweek. Octave is expected to continue moving ESE during the
next day or so, followed by a faster motion toward the northeast
thereafter. Little change in strength is expected through
tonight, followed by gradual weakening and dissipation by
Thursday.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued
by the National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest
Priscilla and Octave NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory
at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N79W to 12N99W, then resumes W
of T.S. Octave near 13N124W to 11N135W. The ITCZ continues from
that point to beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate convection is
evident N of 10N and E of 100W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on
Hurricane Priscilla.

An outer rain band associated with Priscilla extends from the
southern Gulf of California to across the southern tip of Baja
California and toward Socorro Island. This is likely bringing
very rainfall to the area around Los Cabos. Farther south,
dangerous marine conditions are impacting the waters from Jalisco
to western Guerrero and toward Socorro Island. To the north, the
pressure gradient between both hurricanes Priscilla and Tropical
Storm Octave, and a broad ridge extending SE to near 120W is
supporting moderate NW winds and moderate seas in NW swell off
Baja California. Light to gentle winds and slight seas are
elsewhere in the Gulf of California. In the Gulf of Tehuantepec,
a developing low pressure to the east is supporting gentle to
moderate W winds and moderate seas.

For the forecast, Priscilla will move to 20.0N 110.4W this
afternoon, 20.9N 111.8W Wed morning, 21.9N 113.0W Wed afternoon,
23.0N 114.2W Thu morning, weaken to a tropical storm near 24.3N
115.1W Thu afternoon, and 25.5N 115.4W Fri morning. Priscilla
will weaken to a remnant low near 27.7N 115.5W by early Sat. Farther
south, strong winds and rough seas associated with the remnant
low of Octave will impact the waters south of Socorro Island Wed
night into Thu. An area of low pressure is expected to become
better organized off the southern coast of Mexico by midweek.
Environmental conditions are expected to become more favorable
for gradual development of this system later this week, and a
tropical depression is likely to form by the weekend while moving
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 kt, near or parallel to the coast
of southern Mexico. Regardless of development, this system could
produce periods of heavy rainfall along portions of the southern
coast of Mexico through the end of the week. This system has a
high change of tropical cyclone formation through 7 days.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms persist across the offshore
waters of northern Central America. A 1011 mb low pres has
developed near 12.5N90.5W. Winds and seas could be higher near
thunderstorms. North of the monsoon trough, light to gentle winds
and moderate seas are noted, except moderate S to SW winds in
the Nicaragua offshore waters near the low pres. Moderate
southerly winds and moderate seas prevail S of the monsoon
trough.

For the forecast, little change is expected in the weather pattern
across most of the region this week under a weak pressure gradient.
Gentle to moderate southerly winds are expected south of the monsoon
trough while light to gentle winds will prevail to the N of it.
Southerly swell will continue to propagate across the region bringing
moderate seas.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on
Hurricane Priscilla and Tropical Storm Octave.

Outside of Octave and Priscilla, a surface ridge dominates the
waters north of 20N and west of 120W. Moderate winds and
moderate seas are observed under the influence of this system.

For the forecast, Octave will move to 15.4N 118.8W this
afternoon, 15.1N 117.5W Wed morning, 15.4N 115.7W Wed afternoon,
16.5N 113.0W Thu morning, weaken to a tropical depression near
17.9N 110.8W Thu afternoon, and dissipate Fri morning. Little
change is expected elsewhere.

$$
ERA