079
AXPZ20 KNHC 060405
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Mon Oct 6 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0350 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Priscilla is centered near 16.7N 107.3W at 06/0300
UTC, moving north-northwest at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 986 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt with
gusts to 80 kt. Peak seas are near 27 ft. Numerous moderate to
strong convection is from 13N to 19N between 104W and 110W.
Scattered moderate to strong convection in spiral bands are
elsewhere from 10N to 23N between 100W and 114W. On the forecast
track, the center of the system is expected to move offshore of
and parallel to the coast of southwestern Mexico and Baja
California Sur through the early-to-middle part of this week.
Strengthening is expected during the next few days, and Priscilla
is forecast to become a category 2 hurricane later this week
before weakening likely commences on Wednesday. Swells generated
by Priscilla are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern
Mexico and will reach portions of the coast of west-central
Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula by Monday.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.

Hurricane Octave is centered near 16.4N 122.8W at 06/0300 UTC,
moving northeast at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is
984 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 75 kt with gusts to 90
kt. Peak seas are near 22 ft. Numerous moderate to strong
convection is from 15N to 18N between 121W and 124W. A turn
toward the east is expected on Monday, followed by a more east-
southward motion on Tuesday. A gradual weakening trend is
expected to begin on Monday.

Please read the latest NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest
Octave and Priscilla NHC Forecasts/Advisories and Public
Advisories at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N83W to 14N99W, then resumes
SW of Octave from 13N128W to 10N134W. the ITCZ extends from
10N134W to beyond 09N140W. Aside from the convection associated
with Octave and Priscilla, scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted from 02N to 16N E of 99W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on
Hurricane Priscilla.

The SW Mexican offshore waters from Jalisco to Guerrero are being
affected by Hurricane Priscilla. Heavy rainfall associated with
Priscilla will impact coastal sections of southwestern Mexico
through Monday, which could result in flash flooding, particularly
in areas of higher terrain. Farther north, the pressure gradient
between both hurricanes Priscilla and Octave, and a broad ridge
extending SE to near 22N115W is supporting moderate to locally
fresh NW winds and moderate to rough seas in NW swell N of Cabo
San Lucas. Light to gentle winds and slight seas are elsewhere in
the Gulf of Tehuantepec and the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, Priscilla will move to 17.3N 107.7W Mon
morning, 18.1N 108.5W Mon evening, 19.1N 109.8W Tue morning,
20.0N 111.1W Tue evening, 21.0N 112.4W Wed morning, and 22.1N
113.7W Wed evening. Priscilla will weaken to a tropical storm
near 24.3N 115.7W late Thu. Elsewhere, a ridge will continue to
dominate the offshore forecast waters of Baja California through
Mon, supporting moderate to fresh NW to N winds N of Cabo San
Lucas.

Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is expected to form off
the southern coast of Mexico by midweek. Gradual development of
this system is likely thereafter, and a tropical depression could
form during the latter part of the week while moving slowly
west-northwestward, near or parallel to the coast of Mexico. This
system has a medium change of tropical cyclone formation through
7 days.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms persist across the offshore
waters of Central America and Colombia. Winds and seas could be
higher near thunderstorms. N of the monsoon trough, light to
gentle winds and moderate seas are noted while mainly moderate
southerly winds and moderate seas prevail S of it.

For the forecast, little change is expected in the weather pattern
across most of the region this week under a weak pressure gradient.
Gentle to moderate southerly winds are expected south of the monsoon
trough while light to gentle winds will prevail to the N of it.
Southerly swell will continue to propagate across the region bringing
moderate seas in the 5 to 7 ft range. Looking ahead, winds may increase
to fresh speeds across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador
by the middle of the week as a low pressure develops along the monsoon
trough before shifting westward into the Tehuantepec region.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on
Hurricanes Octave and Priscilla.

Outside of Octave and Priscilla, a surface ridge dominates the
waters N of 20N and W of 115W. Mainly moderate winds and
moderate seas are observed under the influence of this system.
Winds increase to fresh speeds over the NW corner of the forecast
area due to the pressure gradient between a surface trough near
140W and the ridge, and also NW of Octave due to the pressure
gradient between the ridge and the tropical cyclone.

For the forecast, Octave will move to 16.4N 121.9W Mon morning,
16.3N 120.8W Mon evening, weaken to a tropical storm near 16.1N
119.6W Tue morning, 15.7N 118.4W Tue evening, 15.7N 117.0W Wed
morning, and 16.1N 115.3W Wed evening. Octave will dissipate late
Thu. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are forecast
elsewhere this week.

$$
Ramos