312
AXPZ20 KNHC 070309
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sun Dec 7 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Light and variable winds and
slight to moderate seas will persist in the Gulf of Tehuantepec
through the remainder of the weekend under a weak pressure
pattern. By early next week, a cold front will move through the
Gulf of America with high pressure surging in across eastern
Mexico in the wake of the front. Fresh to strong northerly winds
will setup in the Gulf of Tehuantepec early Mon, then increase to
gale-force Mon evening. Gale-force winds will then likely persist
through at least Tue morning. These winds will build seas to
rough Mon evening, peaking around 11 ft late Mon night into early
Tue. Please refer to the latest NHC Pacific High Seas Forecast
under the AWIPS header MIAHSFEP2 and under the WMO Header FZPN03
KNHC and at website
https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.
NE
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the SW Caribbean Sea to across
Costa Rica to the Pacific coast at 10N84.5W to 07N95W to 11N111W
to 08.5N122W. The ITCZ continues from 08.5N122W to beyond
07.5N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
noted from 08N to 13.5N between 103W and 121W, and from 07N to
09N between 137W and 140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 09N to 11N between 126W and 129W, and from 04N to 07N
between 138W and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on a
developing Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning.

A surface trough is analyzed from W of Las Marias Islands near
23N107W to near 18N110.5W. This trough is a reflection of an
upper-level trough. Strong SW winds aloft on the E side of the
upper-level trough support an area of scattered moderate
isolated strong convection from 14.5N to 18N between 102W and
107W. Otherwise, a ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters
of Baja California producing mainly gentle to moderate NW to N
winds with mainly moderate seas in NW swell. In the Gulf of
California, gentle to moderate northerly winds prevail, mainly
across the central part of the Gulf where seas are slight.

For the forecast, occasionally fresh NW to N winds are expected
in the central Gulf of California through Tue due to the pressure
gradient between a trough over NW Mexico and a ridge offshore
the Baja California peninsula. Looking ahead, the next gap wind
event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec is expected to begin on Mon as
a cold front moves over the Gulf of America and high pressure
builds across the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre mountains in
the wake of the front. Strong to minimal gale force winds and
rough seas are forecast with this event Mon night through Tue
at least Tue. Fresh N winds may develop near Cabo Corrientes Tue
night through Wed night.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds prevail N of 06N with moderate southerly
winds S of 06N. Seas are mainly moderate in mixed SW and NW
swell, except slight nearshore Colombia northward.

For the forecast, mainly gentle winds will prevail N of the
monsoon trough through the next several days, except increasing
and pulsing to moderate to fresh in the Gulf of Papagayo
beginning early Wed. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail S of
monsoon trough. Seas generated by a gap wind event in the Gulf
of Tehuantepec are expected to spread across the outer offshore
waters of El Salvador and Guatemala Tue and Tue night.
Otherwise, moderate seas in mixed SW and NW swell are expected
over the regional waters through at least the middle of next
week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A high pressure system located N of area and its associated
ridge dominates the waters N of the monsoon trough/ITCZ and W of
115W where moderate to fresh NE-E winds are present. Gentle to
moderate winds prevail elsewhere including S of the monsoon
trough/ITCZ. Seas of 6-8 ft in mixed fresh NE swell and longer
period NW swell dominate the waters N of the Equator and W of
130W. Seas of 4-7 ft prevail across the remainder of the open
waters, dominated by long period NW swell.

For the forecast, high pressure will remain in control of the
weather pattern across the waters N of the monsoon trough/ITCZ
and W of 110W through at least early next week supporting
moderate to locally fresh trade winds. Mainly gentle to moderate
winds will prevail elsewhere, except locally fresh S of the
monsoon trough and W of 100W at times. Rough seas will persist in
the western waters for the remainder of this weekend into early
next week. Moderate seas are expected elsewhere over the eastern
Pacific. Looking ahead, a new set of long period NW swell is
forecast to reach the NW part of the forecast region by the
middle of next week.

$$
Lewitsky