319
AXPZ20 KNHC 100916
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Mon Nov 10 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0820 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong N gap winds continue to
increase across the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight, and are now
reaching gale-force, and extend southward to 14.5N, well ahead
of a cold front moving into the SW Gulf of America. This cold
front will sweep across the Gulf of America on Mon and then move
well into the NW Caribbean and Central America Mon night through
Tue. Strong high pressure behind the front will build southward
across eastern Mexico and through the Isthmus of Tehuantepec Mon
through Tue to produce a very significant gale event across the
Tehuantepec region. Gale force winds will gradually increase and
greatly expand in areal coverage later tonight through Tue
morning. Peak winds near 45 kt with frequent gusts to storm force
are expected out to 150 nm from the coast of Tehuantepec Mon
night through Tue morning. Gale force winds are expected to
extend as far south as 12N and westward to 98W by late Mon night,
with seas peaking around 20 kt at that time. Winds and seas will
begin to slowly diminish Tue afternoon through Wed morning
before falling below gale force around midday Wed. Strong winds
are then expected to continue across and downstream of
Tehuantepec to near 14N through Fri morning.

Large NW swell across the northwestern waters: Large NW swell,
generated by deep low pressure across the NE Pacific in recent
days, has moved into NW portions of the discussion area this
afternoon and tonight. A series of cold frontal boundaries and
elongated low pressure will stall across these NW waters tonight
through Tue before the low weakens and shift NE out of the area,
with the merged cold fronts then moving eastward across the
region. Currently, this NW swell is producing seas of 12 to 15
ft covering the area W of a line from 30N135W to 23N140W. Seas
across this area are expected to subside below 12 ft Mon night,
and below 8 ft on Tue night. Looking ahead, new NW swell will
move into these same NW waters Wed morning, leading to rough to
very rough seas over this same region Wed night through Fri.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N74W to 10N86W to 07N97W to
11N111W to 11.5N127W beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is occurring N of 06.5N east of 85W and from 12N to
15.5N between 110W and 114.5W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted from 05.5N to 111N between 92W and 98W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08.5N to 15N west of
131W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for additional
information on the Gale Warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

N gap winds have increased to gale-force across the Gulf of
Tehuantepec, where seas are estimated at 9 ft. Elsewhere across
the Mexican offshore waters, a surface trough extends from
central California southward along 125W to 28N124W, while a
second trough persists across NW Mexico, yielding a relatively
weak pressure gradient across the Baja California waters. Recent
satellite scatterometer data showed gentle to locally moderate
NW winds occurring in the central and southern Gulf of
California and extending to offshore of Cabo Corrientes, and
across the Baja California waters. Gentle or weaker winds
prevail over the rest of the Mexico offshore waters between Cabo
Corrientes and Puerto Angel. Recent satellite altimeter data
shows residual NW swell producing seas of 6 to 8 ft offshore of
Baja, south of Punta Eugenia, and offshore of southwestern
Mexico. Seas of 4 to 7 ft prevail elsewhere across the Baja Norte
waters and offshore of southern Mexico, with 2 to 4 ft seas in
the central and southern Gulf of California.

For the forecast, gale force gap winds across the winds Gulf of
Tehuantepec will gradually increase and greatly expand in areal
coverage later tonight through Tue morning, as a strong cold
front sweeps through the Gulf of America and strong high pressure
builds north of the front. A large and expansive area of gale
force winds are expected to spread as far south and west as
12N98W by late Mon night, with seas building to around 20 ft at
that time. Strong gales to 45 kt extending out to 150 nm from
the coast of Tehuantepec are expected Mon night through Tue
morning. Gale force winds will continue through Wed morning,
with winds then pulsing to strong to near-gale force through Fri
morning. Elsewhere, rough seas offshore of central Baja
California and southwestern Mexico will slowly subside from
northwest to southeast tonight, though rough seas will persist
near the Revillagigedo Islands through Mon. In the Gulf of
California, moderate to fresh NW winds will pulse through Mon as
troughing prevails over the region.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh gap winds are occurring across the Papagayo
region tonight as Atlantic high pressure extends weakly into the
northwestern Caribbean. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds are
occurring elsewhere north of the monsoon trough E of 88W,  while
moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds continue to the south of
the trough, along 09N, as depicted by recent satellite
scatterometer data. Mixed NW and SW swell are supporting 4 to 6
ft seas over the regional waters, with 7 ft seas noted south and
west of the Galapagos Islands. Scattered moderate to strong
convection has develop along the NW coast of Colombia, inside
the Gulf of Panama, and along the W coast of Costa Rica.

For the forecast, fresh NE winds will pulse to strong speeds each
night and morning by midweek across the Papagayo region through
much of this week as a cold front sweeps through the Gulf of
America and the NW Caribbean, and strong high pressure builds
north of the front. Fresh to locally strong N to NE winds will
briefly occur across and downwind of the Gulf of Fonseca and
south of El Salvador Tue night into midday Wed. Offshore of
Guatemala, expect fresh to locally strong N to NE winds and very
rough seas Mon night through Wed as a significant gale force
wind event occurs in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Rough seas will
expand southeastward to well offshore of El Salvador and
Guatemala early Tue into Wed.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A cold fronts moving into the northwest waters has stalled from
30N137W to 25N140W, stemming from a complex low pressure system
centered offshore of British Columbia. Recent satellite
scatterometer data showed moderate SE to S winds occurring E the
stationary front N of 25N and E to 132W. Large NW swell building
across the NW waters with and ahead of the front is leading to
rough seas north of 21N and west of 130W, with 12 to 15 ft seas
north of 23N and west of 135W, as noted by recent satellite
altimeter and SOFAR buoy data. Weak ridging extends over much of
the rest of the eastern Pacific N of 18N, between 135W and Baja
California. Mainly gentle to moderate trade winds are occurring
north of the monsoon trough to 21N, with locally fresh winds
noted from 12N to 16N and W of 125W. Moderate to fresh SE to SW
winds are occurring south of the monsoon trough. Residual NW
swell is producing rough seas of 8 to 10 ft between 105W and 125W
extending northward to offshore of Baja California Sur, and over
the waters south of 10N.

For the forecast, large NW swell moving into the northwestern
waters, will produce a large area of rough seas through early
this week over much of the eastern Pacific. Seas in excess of 8
ft will prevail across the waters N of 18N and west of 129W by
sunrise, and N of 13N and west of 125W by Mon evening. Very
rough seas of 12 to 15 ft are expected north of 25N and west of
133W through Mon. Seas will slowly diminish from north to south
through midweek, with seas north of 20N falling below 8 ft by
early Wed, and south of 20N by Thu. Looking ahead, new NW swell
will move into the NW waters Wed, leading to rough to very rough
seas over this same region Wed night through late week. Strong E
to NE winds and rough seas generated by a significant gale force
gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will spread large NE
swell into the waters from 05N to 15N and east of 115W Mon night
through Wed before diminishing.

$$
Stripling