570
AXPZ20 KNHC 150332
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sat Jun 15 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central America Heavy Rainfall Event: A Central American Gyre
(CAG) is rapidly developing, with heavy rainfall already
occurring. The first round of excessive rainfall is expected in
Costa Rica and Panama tonight and Saturday, with 8 to 12 inches
along the Pacific coasts. The heaviest rainfall is expected to
occur between Sunday and late next week across portions of
Central America into Mexico.

This rainfall event will cause very hazardous conditions to the
region. Please refer to your local meteorological office
bulletins for more detailed information.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N78W to 16N95W to 16N113W to
07N121W. The ITCZ extends from 07N121W to 08N134W then from
09N135W to beyond 11N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is noted from 03N to 13N and E of 97W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A 1030 mb high pressure is centered well NE of the area near
36N141W and extends a ridge SE across the Baja California
offshore waters. The pressure gradient between this high and
lower pressure over Mexico is causing moderate to fresh winds
across the Baja California offshore waters north of Cabo San
Lazaro. South of Cabo San Lazaro, gentle to moderate winds
prevail. Seas range 5 to 8 ft within NW swell across the region,
with the highest seas N of 28N and W of Guadalupe Island. In the
Gulf of California, winds are gentle to moderate, and seas range
2 to 4 ft. Gentle winds prevail over the SW Mexico offshore
waters with seas 4 to 5 ft within SW swell. Across the southern
Mexico offshore waters, the monsoon trough has lifted north
around 17N, bringing moderate to locally fresh winds. Seas are 6
to 8 ft. Across most of the Mexico offshore waters, smoke from
agricultural fires may be restricting visibility somewhat over
area waters.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong winds will persist
across the Baja California offshore waters through early next
week. NW swell will move across the Baja California Norte
offshore waters, with seas building 8 to 11 ft through the
weekend and into early next week north of Cabo San Lazaro. Seas
are expected to peak north of Punta Eugenia by Sun night into
Mon. Meanwhile, strong winds are expected near the Tehuantepec
region with seas peaking near 12 ft beginning on Sunday and
continuing through early next week.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Refer to the section above for details on the developing Central
American Gyre.

With the monsoon trough displaced farther north than usual, this
is bringing fresh to strong winds across the Colombia and Panama
offshore waters with seas 7 to 10 ft. North of Panama, winds are
moderate to fresh with 6 to 8 ft seas. Strong thunderstorms
continue to impact Central America, bringing heavy rain and
frequent lightning. These storms could cause hazardous marine
conditions. In the Ecuador and Galapagos Island offshore
waters, winds are gentle to moderate. Seas are 6 to 8 ft within S
swell.

For the forecast, an increase in winds, rough seas and
widespread showers and thunderstorms will dominate the area this
weekend. These widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected
to bring heavy rainfall and hazardous conditions. Fresh to
strong winds and rough seas in the Gulf of Panama will improve by
Sat. By Sun, these conditions are expected to develop across the
offshore waters from Guatemala to Nicaragua. Meanwhile, seas to
8 ft will continue around the Galapagos Islands through the
weekend.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Broad ridging dominates the waters north of the ITCZ and monsoon
trough, anchored by a 1030 mb high pressure near 36N141W.
Moderate to fresh winds prevail across waters N of the monsoon
trough and W of 110W with seas 6 to 9 ft. East of 110W, moderate
to locally fresh winds are noted from the monsoon trough from
12N to 05N. Seas are 8 to 9 ft near the stronger winds.
Elsewhere, seas range 5 to 7 ft.

For the forecast, strengthening high pressure centered NW of the
area will dominate waters west of 120W into the weekend. Fresh to
strong winds from the California Channel Islands southward are
likely to dip south of 30N at times this weekend into early next
week. Seas will build to 8 to 11 ft by Sun night into Mon. SW
flow south of the monsoon trough is forecast to continue tonight
between 90W and 115W, supporting seas of 6 to 8 ft. Similar winds
and seas are likely to return there by the end of the weekend
into early next week. Thunderstorms will persist near the monsoon
trough and east of 110W or so through the next couple of days.
Seas to 8 ft will hover around 03S near the Galapagos Islands
through the weekend.

$$
AReinhart