524
AXPZ20 KNHC 011547
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sat Nov 1 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A cold front will move across the
Gulf of America on Sun and a strong ridge will settle across Mexico
and the Gulf in the wake of the front. Strong winds will funnel
through the Chivela Pass and gap winds in Tehuantepec will
resume, reaching near gale force speeds and rough seas by Sun
afternoon and gale force winds shortly thereafter by Sun evening
with seas building to 11 ft. Gales will then prevail through Tue
night into Wed morning, however strong to near gale force winds
will gradually diminish through Thu evening.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 08N134W. The ITCZ
stretches from that point to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is ongoing from 01N to 13N and E of
85W, and from 07N to 14N and W of 92W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Northerly winds from a building ridge in the Gulf of America
continue to support a fresh to strong gap wind event in the Gulf
of Tehuantepec with strong winds reaching as far south as 14N.
Seas are rough in this area. A weak pressure gradient elsewhere
is supporting moderate or weaker winds, except for light to
gentle winds in the Gulf of California. Seas over the SW Mexican
offshores are moderate to rough in SW swell. Moderate seas in NW
swell are along the Baja California offshore waters, except N of
Punta Eugenia where seas are rough in decaying NW swell. In the
Gulf of California seas are slight.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas in the
Gulf of Tehuantepec will diminish to gentle to moderate speeds by
this evening. A cold front will move across the Gulf of America
on Sun and a strong ridge will settle across Mexico and the Gulf
of America in the wake of the front. Strong winds will funnel
through the Chivela Pass and gap winds in Tehuantepec will
resume, reaching near gale force speeds and rough seas by Sun
afternoon and gale force winds shortly thereafter by Sun evening
with seas building to 11 ft. Gales will then prevail through Tue
night into Wed morning, however strong to near gale force winds
will gradually diminish through Thu evening. Otherwise, a set of
large NW swell will move into the Baja California Norte offshore
waters by Sun morning, and spread to Cabo San Lazaro by Sun night
before gradually subsiding through Tue evening.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Recent scatterometer data show moderate to fresh NE winds in the
Gulf of Papagayo where seas are moderate. Light to gentle winds
and moderate seas are elsewhere across the Central America
offshores. Between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, winds are
gentle to moderate from the SE to S, and seas are rough in long
period SW swell.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh gap winds and moderate seas
are expected across the Papagayo region through Thu. Cross-
equatorial SW swell will continue propagate through the regional
waters and will gradually subside on Sun. The next strong
Tehuantepec gap wind event will result in moderate to fresh N
winds and rough seas in the far offshore waters of Guatemala and
El Salvador Mon through early Wed.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1022 mb high pressure centered near 32N132W extends a ridge
across the E pacific subtropical waters, supporting moderate to
fresh NE-E winds and moderate to rough seas over the tropical
waters W of 130W with rough seas. Moderate or weaker winds are
elsewhere W of 113W along with moderate seas. East of 113W, long-
period SW swell is supporting rough seas south of the monsoon
trough.

For the forecast, the subtropical ridge will dominate the waters
W of 120W into early next week. Cross-equatorial SW swell E of
113W will subside by Sun evening. Otherwise, new large NW swell
will enter the far NW waters today, with rough to very rough
seas spreading southeastward through Tue before subsiding.

$$
ERA