686
AXPZ20 KNHC 042126
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat Oct 4 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A large Tropical Storm Priscilla forms off the coast of SW Mexico.
It is centered near 15.5N 106.6W at 04/2100 UTC, moving northwest
at 6 kt. A slow, generally northward drift is expected through
Sunday, followed by a faster northwestward motion beginning on
Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Priscilla is expected
to move offshore of and parallel to the coast of southwestern
Mexico through early next week. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with
gusts to 50 kt. Peak seas are near 15 ft. Strengthening is
forecast during the next few days, and Priscilla is expected to
become a hurricane by Sunday night. Outer bands from Priscilla
will bring heavy rain to portions of southwestern Mexico through
Monday. Across coastal portions of Michoacn and far western
Guerrero, rainfall amounts of 4 to 6 inches are expected, with
local amounts up to 8 inches. Across Colima, western Jalisco, and
the rest of Guerrero along the coast, 2 to 4 inches of rain are
expected. This rainfall will bring a risk of flash flooding,
especially in areas of higher terrain. Swells generated by
Priscilla are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern
Mexico and will reach portions of the coast of west-central
Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula by Monday.
These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.

Tropical Storm Octave is a little stronger. It is centered near
14.9N 123.9W at 04/2100 UTC, moving north-northwest at 5 kt, and
the tropical storm is expected to turn northward and then
eastward in the next day or two. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 997 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with
gusts to 65 kt. Some slight strengthening is possible during the
next day or so. Peak seas are near 20 ft. Numerous moderate to
strong convection is observed within 90 nm W semicircle.

Please read the latest NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest
Octave and Priscilla NHC Forecasts/Advisories and Public
Advisories at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 14N103W, then resumes
SW of Octave from 11N129W to 09N140W. Aside from the convection
associated with Octave and Priscilla, scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 15N between 83W
and 100W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on
recently upgraded Tropical Storm Priscilla.

A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California
supporting moderate to fresh NW to N winds north of Cabo San
Lazaro and gentle to moderate winds between Cabo San Lazaro and
Cabo San Lucas. Moderate to locally fresh NW to N winds are over
parts of the northern and central Gulf of California while winds
are light and variable across the southern part of the Gulf and
the waters near the entrance to the Gulf. Fresh to strong
northerly winds are noted across the Tehuantepec region, and
downwind to near 14N based on a recent scatterometer pass. Marine
conditions are deteriorating off the coast of SW Mexico as Tropical
Storm Priscilla forms there.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Priscilla will move to 15.8N
106.8W Sun morning, 16.3N 106.9W Sun afternoon, strengthen to a
hurricane near 17.0N 107.3W Mon morning, 17.8N 108.2W Mon
afternoon, 18.8N 109.4W Tue morning, and 19.7N 110.7W Tue
afternoon. Priscilla will change little in intensity as it moves
to near 21.7N 113.3W Wed afternoon. Elsewhere, a ridge will
continue to dominate the offshore forecast waters of Baja
California this weekend supporting moderate to fresh NW to N
winds N of Cabo San Lazaro, and gentle to moderate winds between
Cabo San Lazaro and Cabo San Lucas. Fresh to strong N to NE winds
in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will diminish below 20 kt this evening.

Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is expected to form off
the southern coast of Mexico by the middle of next week. Gradual
development of this system is likely thereafter, and a tropical
depression could form during the middle to latter part of next
week while moving west-northwestward to northwestward, near or
parallel to the coast of Mexico. This system has a medium change
of tropical cyclone formation through 7 days.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Unsettled weather conditions persist across the offshore waters
of Central America and Colombia. Meanwhile, a weak pressure
gradient continues to influence the region, sustaining gentle to
moderate S to SW winds S of the monsoon trough and light to
gentle winds to the N of it. Moderate seas in SW swell dominate
the area.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate southerly winds are expected
south of the monsoon trough into early next week. Southerly swell
will continue to propagate across the region, with a new set of
long period SW swell reaching the Galapagos Island tonight into
Sun. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas will persist north
of the monsoon trough. Looking ahead, winds may increase to fresh
speeds across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador
as a low pressure develops along the monsoon trough by the middle
of next week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Tropical
Storm Octave, and recently upgraded Tropical Storm Priscilla.

Outside of the Tropical Storms, a surface trough is analyzed
over the NW waters and runs from 29N134W to 24N136W. Fresh to
locally strong winds NE to E winds and rough seas are observed
near the central part of the trough axis due to the pressure
gradient between the trough and high pressure to the N of the
forecast region. High pressure dominates the remainder of the
area N of 20N W of 115W supporting moderate to locally fresh
winds. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are south of
the monsoon trough between 105W and 130W.

For the forecast, Octave will move to 15.3N 124.0W Sun morning,
15.7N 123.6W Sun afternoon, 15.9N 122.7W Mon morning, 16.0N
121.6W Mon afternoon, 15.8N 120.5W Tue morning, and 15.5N 119.3W
Tue afternoon. Octave will weaken to a tropical depression near
15.3N 116.8W Wed afternoon. The moderate to rough seas in NW
swell affecting the waters N of 20N and W of 110W will continue
to subside on Sun. Meanwhile, a new set of large southerly swell
is reaching the equator.

$$
GR