293
AXPZ20 KNHC 051550
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sun Oct 5 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Priscilla is forecast to become a large hurricane over the early
part of the week. It is centered near 16.4N 107.1W at 05/1500
UTC, moving north-northwest at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 991 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with
gusts to 65 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is within
90 nm of center, except 120 nm SE quadrant. Scattered moderate to
strong convection in spiral bands are elsewhere from 13N to 21N
between 100W and 111W. Peak seas are near 18 ft. On the forecast
track, the center of the system is expected to move offshore of
and parallel to the coast of southwestern Mexico through the
early part of this week. Additional strengthening is forecast
during the next 48 hours, and Priscilla is likely to become a
hurricane over the next day or so. Outer bands from Priscilla will
bring heavy rain to portions of southwestern Mexico through
Monday. Across coastal portions of Michoacn and far western
Guerrero, additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are
expected, with local amounts up to 6 inches. Across Colima,
western Jalisco, and the rest of Guerrero along the coast,1 to 3
inches of additional rainfall are expected. This rainfall will
bring a risk of flash flooding, especially in areas of higher
terrain. Swells generated by Priscilla are affecting portions of the
coast of southwestern Mexico and will reach portions of the coast of
west-central Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula by
Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.

Octave strengthens and becomes the ninth hurricane of the 2025
East Pacific Hurricane Season. It is centered near 15.7N 123.7W
at 05/1500 UTC, moving northeast at 3 kt. A turn toward the east
and east-southeast with a slight increase in forward speed is
expected on Monday. Estimated minimum central pressure is 987
mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt.
Peak seas are near 20 ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection
is noted within 60 nm of center. Little change in strength is
expected today, followed by a gradual weakening trend beginning
on Monday.

Please read the latest NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest
Octave and Priscilla NHC Forecasts/Advisories and Public
Advisories at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N81W to 07N87W to 10N98W, then
resumes SW of Octave from 11N127W to 08N134W. the ITCZ extends
from 08N134W to beyond 09N140W. Aside from the convection
associated with Octave and Priscilla, scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 11N between 80W
and 97W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on
Tropical Storm Priscilla.

The SW Mexican offshore waters from Jalisco to Guerrero are
being affected by Tropical Storm Priscilla. Farther north, the
pressure gradient between both Tropical Storms Priscilla and
Octave, and a broad ridge extending eastward to the Baja
California Peninsula is supporting moderate to locally fresh NW
winds and moderate seas to 7 ft in NW swell N of Cabo San Lucas.
Light to gentle winds and slight seas are elsewhere in the Gulf
of Tehuantepec and the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, Priscilla will strengthen to a hurricane near
16.7N 107.2W this evening, move to 17.4N 107.7W Mon morning,
18.3N 108.6W Mon evening, 19.2N 109.9W Tue morning, 20.1N 111.1W
Tue evening, and 21.0N 112.3W Wed morning. Priscilla will change
little in intensity as it moves to near 23.2N 115.0W  early Thu
Elsewhere, a ridge will continue to dominate the offshore
forecast waters of Baja California today supporting moderate to
fresh NW to N winds N of Cabo San Lucas.

Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is expected to form off
the southern coast of Mexico by midweek. Gradual development of
this system is likely thereafter, and a tropical depression could
form during the latter part of the week while moving slowly
west-northwestward, near or parallel to the coast of Mexico. This
system has a medium change of tropical cyclone formation through
7 days.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms persist across the offshore
waters of Central America and Colombia with scatterometer data
showing fresh to strong winds in the areas of strongest convection.
N of the monsoon trough, light to gentle winds and moderate seas
are noted while mainly moderate southerly winds and moderate
seas prevail SW of it.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate southerly winds are expected
south of the monsoon trough into Thu night. Southerly swell will
continue to propagate across the region through Thu night.
Looking ahead, winds may increase to fresh speeds across the
offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador as a low pressure
develops along the monsoon by midweek before shifting westward
to the Tehuantepec region.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Tropical
Storm Octave, and Tropical Storm Priscilla.

Outside of Octave and Priscilla, a surface ridge dominates the
subtropical E Pacific waters to the west of 115W. Mainly moderate
winds and moderate seas are observed under the influence of this
system.

For the forecast, Hurricane Octave will move to 15.9N 123.1W
this evening, weaken to a tropical storm near 16.1N 122.1W Mon
morning, 15.9N 121.0W Mon evening, 15.7N 119.9W Tue morning,
15.3N 118.8W Tue evening, and 15.3N 117.3W Wed morning. Octave
will weaken to a tropical depression near 17.6N 112.5W. Moderate
or weaker winds and moderate seas are forecast elsewhere through
Thu night.

$$
GR